SoftBank Dumps Nvidia, Bets on OpenAI: Can Its Investment History Predict the Outcome

As 2025 draws to a close, SoftBank’s bold investment decisions are once again capturing the market’s attention. This year, the Japanese conglomerate has showcased its trademark willingness to make sweeping bets, shake up its portfolio. With robust third-quarter results, a headline-grabbing exit from Nvidia—even while AI hardware stocks soar—and an “all-in” strategy steering capital toward OpenAI and ambitious infrastructure plays, SoftBank is repositioning itself not just as a passenger on the AI train, but as one of its drivers. Let’s unpack the company’s recent moves, and strategic pivot. In addition, this article provides a detailed record of SoftBank’s major investments over the years, examining both its legendary wins and costly setbacks.

SoftBank Q3 2025 Earnings: A Turnaround Anchored by AI

SoftBank’s financials for the quarter ended September 2025 reveal a company on firmer footing after a period of volatility. Net profit surged to $6.37 billion (converted from ¥950.6 billion at an average rate of 149 JPY/USD), a substantial improvement over the prior year. Revenues climbed to approximately $11.28 billion (converted from ¥1.68 trillion), marked by higher performance in telecom businesses and improved results in the technology investment portfolio.

The Vision Fund tallied a quarterly investment gain of $3.02 billion (converted from ¥451.1 billion), primarily due to positive revaluations and timely exits. This return to profitability reflects management’s successful adjustment to new market realities—pivoting investment focus, containing risk, and strategically reallocating capital for long-term growth.

Why SoftBank Sold Nvidia While AI Stocks Surge

SoftBank’s liquidation of its entire Nvidia stake in late 2025—realizing $5.8 billion—draws attention given Nvidia’s status as the symbol of the global AI chip frenzy and its all-time high market valuation. However, industry observers and SoftBank insiders offer a clear rationale for the move:

• Profit-Taking at the Peak: Nvidia’s share price more than doubled this year, and SoftBank’s sale secures outsized profits amid what it sees as overheated valuations in the AI hardware sector.

• Strategic Rotation, Not Retreat: A Morgan Stanley analyst summarized it best:
  “Masayoshi Son isn’t fleeing AI by selling Nvidia—he’s just changing seats. The AI train is still going, but he wants to be in the driver’s seat.”

• Shifting to Upstream AI Value: SoftBank’s strategy now targets the application layer and foundational AI models, where it sees even greater opportunity than in hardware.

• Reducing Bubble Risk: There’s growing consensus—including within SoftBank—that the spectacular run in chip stocks may be unsustainable, and crystallizing gains now allows for redeployment into areas with longer-term growth potential.

SoftBank’s New Investment Blueprint: Betting Big on AI Platforms and Infrastructure

Industry consensus sees this series of moves as Masayoshi Son recalibrating SoftBank’s AI strategy. Recent company disclosures reveal a markedly new investment roadmap. SoftBank is preparing a follow-on investment in OpenAI, scheduled for December 2025, signaling its determination to anchor itself at the heart of foundational AI development. Alongside this, the group is set to acquire the US fabless semiconductor company Ampere for $6.5 billion, with the deal expected to conclude by the end of 2025. Further diversifying its portfolio, SoftBank is advancing toward a $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB’s robotics business, aiming for completion in the second half of 2026. Perhaps most ambitious, the company is channeling substantial capital into the Stargate project, charting a course toward $500 billion in global data center capacity and an unprecedented 10 gigawatts of computational power.

The common thread connecting these bold investments is a decisive shift in focus—from dominance in AI hardware to controlling the “application and interaction” layers where AI directly interfaces with users and businesses. As industry observers have noted, “Nvidia has been the visible face of the AI hardware boom, but SoftBank sees even greater opportunity on the software and foundational model plane.” This underscores SoftBank’s evolving belief that the greatest value in the coming era will be captured not just in processing power, but through platforms, models, and end-user engagement built atop that hardware foundation.

Why SoftBank Is All-In on OpenAI

SoftBank’s $22.5 billion additional commitment to OpenAI, bringing its total stake to $30 billion, signals unwavering conviction in the next phase of AI. Here’s why:

• Leadership in AI Ecosystem: OpenAI’s GPT, multimodal, and agent models now anchor mission-critical enterprise and productivity software—and are rapidly commercializing.

• Platform Economics: As OpenAI’s software and API businesses mature, SoftBank anticipates high-margin growth, sticky customer bases, and network effects reminiscent of the earliest days of cloud and mobile platforms.

• Portfolio Synergy: Tighter alignment with OpenAI gives SoftBank a competitive edge, integrating advanced AI throughout its holdings in telecom, business services, logistics, and robotics.

• Infrastructure Anchor: OpenAI is expected to be a cornerstone customer of the Stargate project, making SoftBank critical infrastructure provider for the next wave of global AI workloads.

SoftBank’s Investment History: From Alibaba to AI

SoftBank’s legacy includes record-setting wins (Alibaba, ARM, DoorDash, Coupang) and high-profile lessons (WeWork). The company now signals a commitment to long-duration, theme-focused bets—especially those that leverage its operational base and scale. The 2025 shift is notable not just for its scale, but for its focus: targeting the deep “brains” and software platforms of AI, rather than the commodity hardware beneath.

SoftBank Stock Forecast: Analysis and Price Prediction

SoftBank’s stock (TSE: 9984) has seen impressive gains throughout 2025, rising from around $36 (¥5,400) at the end of 2024 to $66 (¥9,900) by November 2025, reflecting a near-doubling in value. This rally is underpinned by the company’s renewed profitability, successful exits, and market enthusiasm for its new AI-first investment cycle.

Benefits for Investors:

• AI Leadership Premium: SoftBank is now perceived as one of the few global firms with both the means and vision to shape the AI platform economy.

• Balance Sheet Flexibility: Proceeds from the Nvidia exit and robust Vision Fund returns provide ample dry powder for new deals.

• Synergistic Growth: Strategic bets in OpenAI, robotics, semiconductors, and infrastructure tie into global tech demand trends.

Risks and Considerations:

• Execution Risk: Large, concentrated AI bets (especially in early-stage platforms) can deliver outsized returns—or expose investors to volatility if project timelines slip.

• Possible Corrections: The AI sector, while ascendant, is showing early signs of bubble risk—especially in hardware and foundational models.

Price Target:
Industry consensus, based on 2025’s earnings, the realized Nvidia profit, and pipeline investments, suggests a 12-month price target of $72–$80, with upside if OpenAI and Stargate projects hit launch milestones or generate early revenue. Consensus also warns of a downside to $55 in the event of broader AI market corrections or execution hiccups.

Conclusion

SoftBank’s 2025 transformation demonstrates its reputation for bold, future-shaping investment. By exiting Nvidia at historic highs and channeling billions into OpenAI, robotics, and massive data infrastructure, Masayoshi Son is not abandoning the AI revolution—he’s moving to the front of the train. The risks are significant, as with any leading-edge bet, but for investors seeking exposure to the “brains” and beating heart of the emerging digital economy, SoftBank remains a central player to watch through 2026 and beyond.