Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of entering the later stage of its bull cycle, with a growing wave of short-term holders increasingly influencing market activity.
Data from crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates that most investors are currently in profit, and short-term holders now control a record 44% of realized market value. This shift suggests long-term holders are taking profits while new buyers step in.
According to CryptoQuant’s analytics, two key indicators, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Realized Capital composition, suggest that Bitcoin is moving from optimism to euphoria.
Sponsored
NUPL currently sits at +0.52, a level historically associated with peak market confidence.
“Today, around 97% of circulating supply is in profit, reflecting strong market confidence but also suggesting limited upside without consolidation,” the report notes.
In previous cycles, the transition from long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH) often marked the final phase of a bull market.
This cycle, however, appears different. ETF inflows, growing stablecoin liquidity, and institutional buying are absorbing selling pressure, creating a steadier, less volatile form of market euphoria.
Analysts say the next key signal will be a decline in the share of short-term holders, indicating a shift back to accumulation led by long-term investors.
Market behavior mirrors these trends. Blockchain analytics platform Santiment reports Bitcoin has been trading just above $113,000, with crowd sentiment showing mild bullishness.
CryptoQuant adds that reclaiming the $115,000 short-term cost basis would signal renewed trader confidence and a potential move toward stronger bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, centralized exchanges have seen notable outflows over the past week, with Binance leading withdrawals at $21.75 billion, according to Coinglass.
Why This Matters
Bitcoin’s move toward short-term holders and widespread profits shows the market is in a late bull phase, hinting at possible volatility ahead.
Delve into DailyCoin’s top cryptocurrency news:
Whales Short XRP, PEPE & DOGE Ahead Of Powell’s Talk
Dogecoin Founder Slams ‘Uptober’ Talks; DOGE Dips 29%
People Also Ask:
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the unrealized gains or losses of all Bitcoin holders. Readings above 0.5 historically indicate most investors are in profit, signaling late-stage bull market conditions.
Short-term holders (STH) are investors who bought Bitcoin within the last few months, while long-term holders (LTH) have held for longer periods. Shifts in dominance can indicate changing market cycles.
Unlike past cycles, current ETF inflows, growing stablecoin liquidity, and institutional buying are absorbing selling pressure, creating a steadier, less volatile form of market euphoria.
A decline in short-term holders’ share could mark a return to accumulation led by long-term investors, signaling a potential new phase of growth.
Bitcoin’s price around $113K, mild bullish sentiment, and exchange outflows highlight ongoing profit-taking, liquidity shifts, and the influence of new market participants.
