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YFI has dropped 7.68% over the past week during a period of heightened volatility and ongoing downward momentum

YFI has dropped 7.68% over the past week during a period of heightened volatility and ongoing downward momentum

Bitget-RWA2025/11/12 17:46
By:Bitget-RWA

- YFI fell 7.68% weekly to $4747, reflecting ongoing bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. - Technical indicators show bearish alignment (EMA/SMA below price) and key support at $4500–$4600 as critical near-term levels. - Historical backtesting reveals limited post-crash recovery potential, with buy-and-hold win rates between 48-62% after 10%+ drops. - YFI remains vulnerable to further declines without a significant shift in market dynamics or bullish catalysts.

As of November 12, 2025, YFI slipped 0.1% over the past day to settle at $4,747, extending the downward momentum after a 7.68% loss over the previous week. Although the token managed a slight 1.1% increase in the last month, it remains down 40.46% compared to the same period last year. This recent price movement underscores persistent bearish sentiment amid a prevailing bear market.

YFI continues to trade beneath important moving averages, hinting at a possible continuation of its downward trend. Both the 50-day EMA and 200-day SMA are positioned bearishly, confirming the negative outlook. The RSI currently reads a neutral 54, indicating the token is neither overbought nor oversold and is consolidating after recent steep declines. The MACD is in negative territory and has crossed under its signal line, further supporting the bearish perspective.

Technical signals point to a need for caution among traders. If YFI retests the crucial support zone between $4,500 and $4,600, this area may provide a temporary base in the short run. Should the price fall below this support, it could pave the way toward $4,300, with additional downside risks depending on the broader market environment. Conversely, a sustained move above $4,850 might indicate a shift in sentiment and spark a short-term upward move.

The token has shown minimal reaction to short-term price swings. A historical backtest covering January 1, 2022, through November 12, 2025, identified 21 occasions where YFI fell by 10% or more in a single session. On average, the token rebounded by about 5.7% by the tenth trading day after such drops. However, none of these recoveries were statistically significant, suggesting there is no consistent bullish pattern immediately following sharp declines.

Buy-and-hold strategies initiated after a daily drop of –10% showed win rates between 48% and 62%, indicating that traders generally failed to achieve reliable gains by entering positions after major selloffs. This finding is consistent with YFI’s ongoing struggle to maintain levels above previous resistance, reinforcing the view that the token remains in a bearish cycle.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest utilized a standard event-driven approach with a 30-day trading window and parameters based on closing prices. Results indicate that while YFI has frequently experienced single-day declines of more than 10%, it has not consistently delivered statistically significant gains afterward. This analysis supports the technical assessment that YFI currently lacks a strong short-term bullish driver and remains susceptible to further declines unless broader market conditions improve.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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