Technical Pressure Builds As Bitcoin Nears Bearish Signal

As tension rises in the market, Bitcoin is about to cross a critical technical threshold : the “death cross”. This signal, feared by traders, occurs at a pivotal moment, at the intersection of a 25 % correction and an uncertain macroeconomic climate. While some see it as a classic bearish indicator, others recall it coincided with market lows. In this context, certainties waver, and each candlestick becomes a test for investor morale.

The death cross signal : bearish indicator or turning point ?

Just a month after reaching a historic high above $126,000 , BTC has dropped nearly 25 %, temporarily wiping out all of its gains since the start of the year.

Data from Glassnode reveal that short and long-term trend indicators are about to cross downward, a phenomenon known as a “death cross”. This configuration, where the 50-day moving average (MA50) falls below the 200-day moving average (MA200), is generally seen as a bearish signal.

Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average at $110,669 is now about to cross below the 200-day moving average at $110,459. This dynamic is often feared as it reflects weakening short-term momentum against the underlying trend.

However, historical data from the past two years challenges this pessimistic reading. Since the start of the 2023 bull cycle, each occurrence of a death cross has marked a local bottom rather than a prolonged collapse. Here are the previous noted cases :

• September 2023 : the death cross coincided with a technical floor around $25,000 ;

• August 2024 : amid the yen carry trade crisis, Bitcoin bounced back after hitting $49,000 ;

• April 2025 : in a context of uncertainties related to Trump’s tariff policies, BTC briefly fell below $75,000 before rising again ;

• November 2025 : the Bitcoin price flirts with $94,000, and some analysts already see the beginnings of a new rebound just before the expected crossover.

This fourth crossover could once again play the role of a “bull trap” rather than a harbinger of a crash.

The fragile balance of the market

The current situation is not just a technical reading. The macroeconomic context acts as a catalyst for this volatility.

The end of the US government shutdown , which occurred on November 12 after 43 days of halt, paradoxically triggered a 10 % drop in BTC within a few days. This type of reaction had already been observed in January 2019 when Bitcoin declined by 9 % in the five days following the resumption of government activities.

Meanwhile, another factor weighs on the upward momentum : profit-taking behaviors among whales. It is not a panic movement but a classic pattern of the end of a bull cycle.

Such a gradual increase reflects growing distribution pressure from older holders, a typical pattern of profit-taking at the cycle’s end, and not a sudden exit by whales. This nuance is essential because it shows the observed movements are less related to a confidence crisis and more to tactical risk management by experienced investors.

As explained Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, “the fundamentals remain strong… I believe 2026 will be a good year”.

In the medium term, this combination of factors raises questions about the validity of the traditional four-year crypto cycle. Despite broader institutional adoption, the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and a Trump administration seen as pro-crypto, the market shows signs of fragility. To succeed, the market will first have to navigate this phase of instability.