Prediction Market Sector Splits into Liquidity Providers and Distribution Networks
- Robinhood and Coinbase expand prediction markets via CFTC-regulated platforms, targeting $300M+ annualized revenue for Robinhood by 2025. - Kalshi ($11B valuation) and Polymarket ($12–15B) compete with regulated vs. decentralized models, while Nevada court challenges threaten $650M contracts. - Sector fractures into liquidity platforms (Kalshi/Polymarket) and distribution channels (Robinhood/Coinbase), with $51.39B combined trading volume in 2025. - Regulatory alignment becomes critical as Polymarket par
The prediction market industry is experiencing swift changes as leading fintech companies such as
Kalshi, a platform regulated by the CFTC, recently secured $1 billion in funding at a valuation of $11 billion,
Coinbase is also making its entry, with leaked application code and images indicating it plans to launch a Kalshi-backed prediction market at its December 17 event. The new platform will enable users to trade binary contracts on a variety of events, from elections to crypto achievements, with results verified by reliable data providers
As regulatory loopholes close, compliance is becoming a key factor for success. Polymarket’s recent approval from the CFTC and its data partnership with Intercontinental Exchange
The prediction market ecosystem is dividing into liquidity providers (Kalshi, Polymarket) and distribution platforms (Robinhood, Coinbase). As Robinhood and Coinbase incorporate regulated systems, the industry’s expansion will depend on balancing regulatory compliance with innovation. Bernstein continues to rate Robinhood as “outperform,”
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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