The possibility of BlackRock launching a spot XRP ETF has become one of the most widely discussed topics in the XRP community. Analysts argue that if the world’s largest asset manager enters the XRP market, it could trigger a big shift in institutional adoption, liquidity, and long-term price behavior.
This discussion recently resurfaced after analyst Jake Claver revisited previous hints from both Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. In multiple interviews, both executives were asked about a BlackRock XRP ETF. Each time, they replied with the same phrase: “I can’t talk about that.”
According to Claver, that level of secrecy usually means some form of NDA or closed-door discussion is already underway.
The XRP ETF speculation picked up in November 2023 when a filing for an iShares XRP Trust appeared in Delaware.
Bloomberg later reported that the document was “fake,” but neither Ripple nor BlackRock ever publicly confirmed that claim, something analysts consider unusual. In previous cases of fake ETF filings, both the token teams and the companies involved immediately denied them.
The fact that this one was quietly brushed aside without official clarification continues to fuel speculation that something was happening behind the scenes.
Claver argues that if BlackRock officially files for an XRP ETF, it would be one of the biggest endorsements the asset has ever received. BlackRock’s involvement would signal to global institutions that XRP is a serious, long-term financial instrument, similar to what happened with Bitcoin in 2023.
Another major player to watch is Vanguard, which refused to participate in Bitcoin ETFs. Instead, they blocked their subsidiaries from offering Bitcoin ETF exposure at all. Yet there are longstanding connections between Ripple and Vanguard, raising the possibility that Vanguard may decide to enter the market through an XRP ETF rather than Bitcoin.
If both BlackRock and Vanguard enter the XRP ETF space, the impact on supply would be enormous. These firms have hundreds of institutional counterparties that rely on them to allocate capital. The moment an XRP ETF becomes available, every one of those counterparties gains direct access to XRP for the first time.
This would dramatically accelerate XRP’s institutional demand, potentially removing billions of tokens from the open market.
Claver previously said that multiple ETF-driven demand alone could push XRP to $10–$12, even without macro tailwinds or additional utility demand. According to him, this is based purely on supply conditions and institutional inflows.
Others say this could be only the beginning. If multiple ETFs launch within days of each other, similar to the spot Bitcoin ETFs, XRP could face a “snowball effect” of capital entering the ecosystem.
