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The Fed’s Sept 17 meeting could move crypto 🔎 25 bps: Expected cut, likely sell-the-news for BTC. 50 bps: Surprise liquidity boost, alts soar. 0 bps: Shock sell-off. Which outcome will Powell deliver? 🤔 Full breakdown by @okothbaba👇🏻

The digital asset market is no stranger to volatility, and $SWTCH is proving to be a coin to watch. Over the last 24 hours, the token surged 16.46%, attracting attention from both traders and long-term investors. While such sharp moves are not unusual in crypto, the drivers behind SWTCH’s price action are layered, involving supply unlock schedules, network innovations, and liquidity factors. In this article, we will examine the key forces likely to shape SWTCH’s price trajectory in the coming months and years. From the bearish overhang of insider-controlled tokens to the bullish promise of restaking adoption, understanding these dynamics is essential for informed decision-making. 1. Token Unlocks: The Bearish Overhang One of the most significant concerns for SWTCH’s future valuation is its token unlock schedule. Currently, 78% of the total supply is controlled by insiders, with major unlocks set to begin in 2026. This concentration of supply raises two issues: Sell-Pressure Risk: If insiders liquidate portions of their holdings once unlocks begin, the market could face severe downward pressure. Even well-performing tokens often struggle when large amounts of supply hit the market. Market Confidence: A high percentage of tokens under insider control tends to reduce trust among retail traders and smaller investors. Unless SWTCH demonstrates clear mechanisms for decentralized distribution, skepticism may persist. In short, while 2026 may seem distant, the anticipation of these unlocks could create bearish sentiment well ahead of time. Traders should be cautious about long-term overexposure without accounting for supply dilution risks. 2. Restaking Adoption: A Bullish Catalyst On the other hand, SWTCH has a strong bullish narrative developing around its restaking ecosystem. The project is exploring Fragmetric integration, a move that could significantly boost network security and efficiency. Why does this matter? Increased Utility: Restaking allows tokens already staked to be reused across multiple protocols, amplifying their economic productivity. This innovation has been gaining traction in DeFi, with Ethereum’s EigenLayer leading the way. Security & Scalability: By integrating Fragmetric, SWTCH could improve validator efficiency, reduce slashing risks, and enhance trust in the network. Ecosystem Growth: As more users and developers adopt restaking within SWTCH’s ecosystem, demand for the token could grow beyond speculative trading, giving it organic utility value. If executed properly, restaking adoption could serve as a counterbalance to supply risks, supporting mid-to-long-term price growth. 3. Launchpool Volatility: A Mixed Bag SWTCH’s involvement in launchpools has introduced both opportunities and risks. Positive Impact: Launchpool campaigns increase exposure, bringing new liquidity and market participants to the token. They can generate initial demand spikes, as we’ve seen in the +16.46% daily surge. Negative Impact: However, launchpool participants often farm rewards only to sell quickly, creating a cycle of short-term volatility. This effect can undermine price stability, particularly in the weeks following such events. The key takeaway is that launchpool activity is a double-edged sword—it boosts awareness but also fuels short-term speculation. 4. Current Market Sentiment The recent 16.46% price increase in 24 hours signals rising short-term optimism. Traders may be pricing in the benefits of upcoming restaking features or responding to increased liquidity from launchpool events. However, one day’s surge should be viewed in context: Resistance Levels: If SWTCH fails to break above key resistance zones, profit-taking could quickly reverse gains. Momentum Indicators: Traders should watch RSI (Relative Strength Index) and EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) to gauge whether the rally has room to run or if overbought conditions are forming. 5. Short-Term vs Long-Term Outlook Short-Term (2025): Expect high volatility driven by launchpool campaigns, speculative trading, and technical breakouts. Traders could benefit from swing trading opportunities but should keep tight stop-losses given the token’s rapid price swings. Medium to Long-Term (2026 onward): The insider unlock risk looms large. Unless SWTCH implements robust vesting controls, insider selling could suppress price growth. On the other hand, if the restaking narrative gains adoption, it could create a strong enough demand base to absorb new supply. 6. Strategies for Traders and Investors Traders: Focus on technical setups and capitalize on volatility around launchpool announcements and restaking updates. Monitoring trading volume alongside EMA crossovers could provide timely entry and exit signals. Investors: Adopt a cautious stance. Consider accumulating on dips while hedging against the risk of insider unlocks. Keeping allocations moderate until post-2026 clarity emerges may be prudent. Builders/Developers: The success of restaking integration will depend on ecosystem adoption. Partnerships and DeFi integrations could be pivotal in shifting SWTCH from a speculative token to a utility-driven network asset. Final Thoughts SWTCH is standing at a crossroads, with both bullish and bearish forces pulling its price trajectory in opposite directions. On one hand, insider-controlled supply and future unlocks create a long-term overhang that investors cannot ignore. On the other, the promise of restaking adoption and Fragmetric integration could strengthen SWTCH’s position within the broader blockchain ecosystem. For now, the token remains a high-risk, high-reward play. Traders may continue to benefit from launchpool-driven volatility, while investors will need to weigh the potential of groundbreaking innovations against the harsh reality of concentrated supply unlocks. As always in crypto, success will depend not only on market timing but also on execution of fundamentals. SWTCH’s ability to transform restaking from a theoretical narrative into a practical utility may well determine whether it becomes a sustainable project—or just another volatile token facing sell-pressure storms.

Bitwise has filed for an $AVAX spot ETF with the SEC. If approved, it could bring institutional capital, boost liquidity, and add mainstream legitimacy to Avalanche. This may also pave the way for more altcoin ETFs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.🚀🔥

Markets Markets Brief: Can a Bumper Fed Rate Cut Give Stocks Another Boost? US Companies Are Absorbing Tariff Inflation Inflation was in the spotlight last week as commentators sought evidence of tariff impacts and an indication of future interest rate policy in the latest data. But producer price inflation was benign, falling to 2.6% over the last year from 3.1% the previous month. This decline in headline PPI primarily reflects a decline in trade margins, as wholesalers and retailers absorb inflation from tariffs by reducing their profit margins rather than passing these costs onto consumers. This stands in sharp contrast to the postpandemic period when these companies sought to boost their margins under the cover of broader inflationary pressures. This more cautious approach may indicate a lack of confidence in the strength of the US businesses to withstand higher prices. Although consumer price inflation remains above target, it was in line with expectations and consequently reinforced expectations of forthcoming interest rate cuts. In response, the US dollar fell on Thursday, ending the week down 0.3%. Long-Term Treasury Yields Fall Within the Treasury markets, the most notable move came from the 30-year yield, traditionally seen as a measure of financial stability, which fell to its lowest level since the announcement of the tariffs in early April. The show of confidence among investors coincided with news that the Supreme Court will fast-track a judgment on the authority of President Donald Trump to use emergency powers to impose tariffs. Tariffs Show Investors Have Short Memories While the judgment of the Supreme Court is unknown, the waning impact of tariffs in the minds of investors can be seen from the performance of Morningstar’s tariff exposure basket, an unweighted collection of companies identified by our analysts as being especially vulnerable to tariffs. Having fallen on average 22% from the start of the year to April 8 when we launched the basket, the price of these companies has subsequently risen by an average of 25%, with several up over 100%, including Wayfair W, Kohl’s KSS, and Western Digital WDC. This is a reminder of how quickly important economic and geopolitical events can fade in the minds of investors, even while the outlook is still uncertain. Similar insouciance in the face of political and economic uncertainty was also evident in French stocks, which rose 1.8% in a week when the country welcomed its sixth prime minister in five years. It would be easy to interpret these outcomes as evidence that investors are becoming more comfortable with political uncertainty. However, such a conclusion must be tested through the next significant crisis before we could have any confidence in that argument. Oracle Stock Price Soars Technology investors had plenty of news to digest last week, with several capital raisings, including the IPO of Klarna, new products from Apple AAPL, and eye-popping results from Oracle ORCL. Oracle’s impressive growth triggered a 42% increase in its stock price on Wednesday, briefly making founder Larry Ellison the world’s richest man and helping the information technology sector to a 2.8% gain over the week. It also prompted a change in Morningstar analyst Luke Yang’s assessment of Oracle’s fair value estimate. Apple, in contrast, failed to impress investors, a dangerous outcome for a company trading at an expensive valuation. Technology gains also drove the consumer discretionary sector 1.3% higher as Tesla TSLA rose 12.8% on the announcement that it has gained approval to test its robotaxi in Nevada. Performance of the Morningstar US Market Index in September.

🔥 Fed Rate Cuts: A Turning Point for Markets? The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis-point rate cut today (September 17, 2025), marking the first cut since 2024 . This move aims to address cooling inflation and a softening labor market, with the median federal funds rate projected to reach 3.9% by year-end . For markets, this could unlock liquidity, boost risk assets like growth stocks and crypto, and provide relief for borrowers. However, mortgage rates may not drop immediately, as they track longer-term Treasury yields rather than short-term Fed policy . Historically, the S&P 500 has averaged 14.1% returns in the 12 months after rate cuts begin, suggesting a bullish tailwind for equities 📈 Macro Trends and On-Chain Indicators Point to Bitcoin Holding Gains Bitcoin’s resilience above $115,000 is backed by strong on-chain signals and macroeconomic tailwinds: · Dormant Coins: ~6.5% of Bitcoin’s supply (1.2M BTC) hasn’t moved in over 12 months, indicating long-term holder confidence . · Institutional Accumulation: Large transfers to cold storage (>1,000 BTC) surged 40% YoY, with ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT attracting $1.7B in weekly inflows . · Scarcity Dynamics: Negative exchange inventories and rehypothecation protocols are shrinking circulating supply, mirroring pre-bull market conditions . Macro factors like the $1.9T U.S. deficit and 2.2% inflation are driving institutional adoption as a hedge against fiat dilution . ⚡ Fed Rate Cut in 48 Hours: Is Your Crypto Portfolio Ready to 10x? With the Fed’s decision imminent, crypto investors should: 1. DCA into Blue-Chips: Bitcoin’s 375.5% returns since 2023 highlight its role as a liquidity amplifier . 2. Diversify Strategically: Allocate 20–30% to altcoins with strong fundamentals, but avoid chasing pumps . 3. Lock in Yields: Use staking/lending protocols to benefit from shrinking supply and upward price pressure . 4. Hedge Risks: Tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could spark volatility—consider gold or inflation-protected assets . Note: Short-term volatility is likely post-announcement, but long-term bullish trends remain intact . 🛡️ Why Smart Money Never Loses in Trading (While Everyone Else Gets Rekt) Retail traders often fall victim to: · Over-Leverage: Liquidations wipe out accounts when markets move 5–10% against 20x positions . · FOMO Buying: Chasing pumps like memecoins leads to buying tops and selling bottoms . · Poor Security: Self-custody mistakes or exchange hacks result in irreversible losses . Smart money strategies: · Risk ≤1–2% per trade and use stop-loss orders . · Prioritize BTC and ETH over low-cap alts to reduce scam risks . · Embrace DYOR: Audit team credibility, tokenomics, and liquidity before investing . 💡 Bottom Line: The Fed’s rate cut could ignite a new phase of liquidity-driven growth for risk assets, but volatility and structural risks remain. align with institutional accumulation trends, manage leverage wisely, and focus on long-term value over short-term hype. Tags: #FedRateCut #Bitcoin #Crypto #Macroeconomics #RiskManagement #Investing Follow for more analysis on markets and crypto! 🔥📊