U.S. February PCE Data Forecast: Core PCE May Record Largest Monthly Increase in a Year

The core PCE in the United States is expected to rise by 0.3% in February, marking the largest monthly increase in a year, demonstrating why Federal Reserve officials are cautious about cutting interest rates prematurely. The overall PCE is expected to rise by 0.4%, reaching its highest level since September last year. This will bring the annualized increase of core PCE over the past three months to its highest level since May last year. In addition, some economists predict that data for January will be revised upwards. This contrasts sharply with the end of 2023 when inflation showed signs of falling back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.