Brandt Predicts Bitcoin Top with Halving Analysis

• Peter Brandt posted his Bitcoin top call for this bull cycle.
• Brandt’s prediction is more conservative than others, who have forecasted a top as high as $1 million this cycle.
• A $1 million Bitcoin price would come at the expense of economic stability.

The latest Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, cutting the miners’ block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This systematic halving of new coin issuance every four years is a key driver of Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity over time, which plays on the basic economic principles of supply and demand dynamics. With demand staying constant or increasing, the restriction in supply should act as a catalyst for price appreciation.

Past halving cycles have indeed coincided with significant subsequent Bitcoin price increases following the events. Using past halving data, trader Peter Brandt recently posted his analysis to forecast the potential Bitcoin top for the current cycle.

Bitcoin to Top Next Year: Brandt

Brandt’s halving cycle analysis led him to predict a potential Bitcoin price top for this cycle in the range of $130,000 to $150,000 around late August or early September 2025. 

Bitcoin halving technical analysis per Peter Brandt

Brandt’s study noted that the halvings have historically represented the midpoint of bull market cycles, with cycles beginning after hitting a 75%+ decline. The number of weeks from that low to the halving date tends to approximately equal the number of weeks from the halving to the subsequent market top.

Looking at the 2021 cycle, Brandt found that it took 71 weeks to go from the low to the May 11, 2020 halving, and then another 76 weeks from the halving date until Bitcoin topped out near $69,000 in November 2021. 

The 2016 cycle was even more symmetrical, spanning 76 weeks from the low to the July 9, 2016 halving, and then 76 more weeks until the December 2017 peak just below $20,000. If this pattern holds, Brandt proposed that the current cycle top should arrive around late August or early September of 2025.

Regarding the $130,000 to $150,000 market top price prediction, Brandt used an inverted parabolic curve to the highs of past Bitcoin cycles, which puts a peak price on BTC at those levels come August/September 2025.

While Brandt’s $130,000 to $150,000 target represents a massive rally from current levels, others have put forward even loftier projections for where Bitcoin could potentially top during this cycle.

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BTC to Hit $1 Million?

The speculative narrative around cryptocurrencies has bred a wide range of lofty bullish calls recently, especially following Bitcoin’s reaching a new all-time high of $74,000 in March.

Strike CEO Jack Mallers, for instance, recently predicted Bitcoin could reach anywhere from $250,000 to $1 million per coin this cycle. Mallers cited the spiraling U.S. national debt and perpetual money printing as catalysts that could drive investors to flock to scarce assets like Bitcoin as a store of value amid currency debasement.

Similarly, in Q4 2023, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated a looming “financial disturbance” in 2024 would be the trigger to send Bitcoin surging to between $750,000 and $1 million by 2026. His theory posits that such a disturbance would force central banks into historic money printing, catalyzing the largest bull market ever seen across all asset classes.

On the Flipside

• Mallers and Hayes‘ prediction prices are not based on past data points.
• Technical analysis is no guarantee of accurate forecasting either.
• The BTC price on the 2016, 2020, and 2024 halving dates was $650, $8,500, and $64,000, respectively.

Why This Matters

While past performance does not guarantee future results, Brandt’s study reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as a cyclical asset with immense upside potential.

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