As 2025 approaches, the cryptocurrency world is once again awash with bold predictions about the future of Bitcoin. So, industry giants like Cathie Wood, Mike Novogratz, and Michael Saylor have frequently made headlines with their predictions, but how well did their 2024 predictions come true?
Here's a look at some of the top predictions and how they performed against reality.
While crypto executives are rarely pessimistic, some have taken a more cautious stance on Bitcoin’s 2024 trajectory. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and head of the Maelstrom Fund, predicted in late 2023 that Bitcoin would climb to around $70,000 by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, VanEck and analysts at Bitwise have predicted that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs without committing to exact figures.
By the fourth quarter of 2024, Bitcoin had indeed surpassed previous highs, breaking through the $100,000 mark for the first time. While Hayes downplayed the bull run, his broader outlook remained optimistic, with predictions that Bitcoin could reach $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.
Others were more ambitious and less accurate.
Tim Draper, known for his relentless bullishness, has long been a proponent of Bitcoin’s potential to explode. In 2018, he claimed that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by 2022. When that didn’t happen, he extended the timeline to 2023, then 2024, citing the momentum from the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs as a major driver. By November, Draper revised his forecast again, predicting $120,000 by December 2024.
Similarly, analysts at Matrixport and Standard Chartered have also changed their forecasts throughout the year. Both had predicted a Bitcoin price of $125,000, but ended up settling for a more modest result.
Among the boldest forecasters, Cathie Wood, Mike Novogratz, and Michael Saylor stood out.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, once claimed that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2024. However, as the year progressed, he scaled back his expectations and eventually predicted $100,000, which came pretty close to the actual figure.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, a firm with a history of aggressive Bitcoin investments, has maintained its forecasts of $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030. While those long-term targets remain under test, ARK’s short-term outlook has been less emphasized.
Then there’s Michael Saylor, the chairman of MicroStrategy and the face of Bitcoin maximalism. Saylor’s eye-popping prediction of $13 million per Bitcoin by 2045 remains one of the boldest statements in the space. But for 2024, he remained focused on accumulation rather than specific price points.
The guessing game continues as the industry’s biggest names look to 2025 and beyond. VanEck sees more records on the horizon, while analysts like Noelle Acheson predict Bitcoin will surpass $125,000 next year.
*This is not investment advice.
