TL;DR
- Despite the brief price dip at the start of the business week, Bitcoin (BTC) seems capable of tapping a fresh all-time high in the following weeks.
- Nevertheless, there’s also a dark horse in this prediction game, as the next FOMC meeting is right around the corner.
New Peak in Just a Few Days?
Despite its enhanced volatility since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a bullish mode and is among the best-performing leading cryptocurrencies. Prior to Donald Trump’s inauguration, the asset’s price tapped a new all-time high of almost $110,000 before briefly tumbling below $98,000 earlier this week. The correction was short-lived, and the bulls quickly regained control, pushing the valuation toward $103K.
February has been a historically solid period for the primary cryptocurrency. The only two times BTC’s price underperformed during that month were in 2014 and 2020. On the contrary, 8 of the last 12 Februaries saw the asset pumping by double digits. Many industry participants drew comparisons with previous Februaries, suggesting that history could repeat itself.
Moreover, this one is a post-halving February – all previous ones have resulted in substantial gains.
Next on the list is BTC’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which has been hovering below the healthy level of 2.5 over the past week. Such a ratio typically indicates that the asset is moving toward undervalued territory, which could be interpreted as a buying opportunity.
Third, we will touch upon Bitcoin’s exchange netflow. According to CryptoQuant’s data, outflows have predominantly surpassed inflows in the last seven days, suggesting a shift from centralized platforms toward private wallets. This could be viewed as a bullish sign since it reduces the immediate selling pressure.
Bonus: the FOMC Meeting
One important event that may trigger additional volatility for BTC is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for January 28-29. The experts will decide whether to change the interest rates in the US, which are currently set at 4.25% – 4.50%.
Lowering the benchmark would make money borrowing cheaper and could increase the interest in risk-on assets like BTC. This could drive a new wave of investors into the ecosystem and create upward pressure on the price. On the other hand, lifting the interest rates may have a negative effect on BTC and the entire cryptocurrency market.
According to Polymarket, there is a 98% chance that the benchmark will remain unchanged after the meeting. We have yet to see whether this will be the case and whether it will cause any price fluctuations for BTC.
