- Raoul Pal compares 2025’s Bitcoin cycle to 2017, noting five pullbacks and altcoin corrections up to 65% amid macro parallels.
- Bitcoin trades at $93,775, 13.3% below its $108,786 peak, with Bybit’s $1.4B hack disrupting recent rebound attempts.
Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision Group, compares current cryptocurrency market behavior to 2017’s cycle, noting similar macroeconomic structures. Bitcoin has faced five major pullbacks this year, each lasting two to three months before reaching new highs.
Altcoins, meanwhile, have corrected up to 65% during these periods. Pal advises investors to avoid obsessive price monitoring, emphasizing long-term discipline over short-term reactions.
You guys all need to learn patience…
This was 2017. Very similar macro structure:
5 x 28%+ pullbacks in BTC
Most lasted 2 to 3 months before a new high
Alts saw 65% corrections.
All were noise.Go do something else more constructive than stare at the screen. pic.twitter.com/jGyiOgKlYE
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) February 24, 2025
Bitcoin traded at $93,775 on Tuesday, down 13.3% from its all-time high of $108,786 set in late 2024. The asset briefly neared $100,000 last week before a $1.4 billion hack at Bybit disrupted momentum .
Pal, who sold Bitcoin prematurely in May 2017, acknowledges parallels to his past missteps. “I lost patience then, and markets punished that,” he stated, referencing Bitcoin’s surge to $20,000 months after his exit.
Friday bombshell – Ive just sold all my bitcoin. #bitcoin Im not bearish but my reasons to own it have diminished. I'll write it up soon.
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) May 19, 2017
Current price action mirrors 2017’s consolidation phase. After surpassing $100,000 in December 2024, Bitcoin entered a sideways trend, struggling to sustain breaks above $102,000.
ETHNews analysts attribute this to reduced institutional inflows and macroeconomic uncertainty. The Federal Reserve’s rate policy and geopolitical tensions have compounded pressure, echoing 2017’s regulatory hesitations.
Altcoins face amplified headwinds. A Bloomberg report links recent underperformance to failed meme coin projects, which eroded retail confidence. Ethereum, Solana, and Polygon have corrected 25-40% from January peaks. Traders shifted focus to stablecoins and blue-chip tokens, reflecting risk aversion reminiscent of 2017’s “altcoin winters.”
Pal’s analysis suggests patience. Historical data indicates Bitcoin tends to rebound after prolonged consolidations, often sparking altcoin rallies. However, he cautions against timing markets, citing emotional decision-making risks. “Constructive actions beat screen-staring” he advised, urging portfolio reviews over panic trades.
Bitcoin’s 2024 peak involved ETF inflows and corporate adoption absent in 2017. Yet volatility metrics align: 30-day price swings average 4.2% in 2025 versus 4.8% in 2017. Derivatives data shows open interest consolidating near $32 billion, signaling trader caution.
The Bybit hack introduced unforeseen variables
Stolen funds could create sell pressure if liquidated, though blockchain ETHNews analysts note hackers often hold assets. Exchanges have frozen $600 million linked to the breach, mitigating immediate risks.
As Pal’s comparison circulates, investors weigh cyclical patterns against evolving fundamentals. Bitcoin’s next test lies at $96,000 resistance; a breakout could reignite momentum.
For altcoins, sentiment hinges on Bitcoin’s stability and project-specific developments. While history doesn’t repeat exactly, its echoes remind markets that patience often precedes rallies.
