Equities dip, volatility rises as tariffs take effect

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President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect after a one-month delay this morning. 

Both countries announced plans to retaliate: Canada will put a 25% levy on around $100 billion of US imports and Mexico will share its next moves on Sunday. 

Trump also slapped another 10% duty on Chinese imports. In response, China will charge an extra 15% for a range of US imports, including chicken, wheat and cotton. An added 10% tariff will be placed on soybeans, seafood and other products. 

China also filed a lawsuit against the US with the World Trade Organization. 

Markets reacted as expected: Gold is up, stocks are down and the VIX is elevated. As of this afternoon, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had both nearly erased all gains since Election Day. The S&P 500 is now down 1.2% year to date while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has lost more than 5% since the start of the year. 

The VIX spiked to above 26 shortly after the open this morning, marking the highest level of volatility we’ve seen so far this year. Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and interest rate decisions are weighing on investor sentiment. 

Perhaps surprisingly, the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar dipped just a bit, likely reflecting investors’ belief that these higher tariffs will be short-lived. Personally, I think this is wishful thinking. The longer these new trade fees stay in place, the greater the selloff we’ll see on both currencies.

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