Bitcoin poised for breakout as US Term Premium hits 12-Year high – StanChart

Standard Chartered’s global head of crypto research, Geoffrey Kendrick, believes Bitcoin (BTC) has yet to price in growing signs of systemic risk despite strengthening its case as a hedge in recent weeks.

In an April 22 client note, Kendrick warned that political pressure on the US Federal Reserve is driving bond market stress that could soon spill into crypto markets.

He pointed to the US 10-year term premium hitting its highest level in 12 years, a move he said reflects mounting concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and most notably, the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

According to Kendrick:

“The current threat to the Fed’s independence via Powell’s potential replacement falls squarely into the category of government-related risks. Bitcoin should begin to reflect this shift soon.”

Bitcoin’s role as a crisis hedge remains intact

Kendrick categorized Bitcoin as a hedge against two distinct types of systemic threats: private-sector collapses such as the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure, and public-sector credibility shocks like central bank interference or sovereign debt doubts.

While Bitcoin often trades like a risk asset in normal conditions, Kendrick emphasized that its true function emerges during macro stress events. He added that the latest term premium spike, an indicator of long-term inflation and rate risk, represents the kind of environment where Bitcoin historically reasserts its hedge narrative.

Kendrick also drew attention to a recent divergence: while the term premium has surged in recent weeks, Bitcoin’s price has stalled below the $100,000 mark. He attributed the lag to a temporary investor focus on trade-related fears, including tech-sector tariffs, which have muted Bitcoin’s reaction.

He wrote:

“BTC is lagging the term premium as the focus temporarily rests on tech underperformance. But when the narrative rotates back to central bank credibility, Bitcoin will revert to its hedge function.”

Bitcoin’s $200k forecast unchanged

Despite short-term volatility, Kendrick reaffirmed Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecast for Bitcoin: $200,000 by the end of 2025, and $500,000 by 2028.

He attributed this projected rise to macroeconomic pressure and improving structural access via spot ETFs, as well as a maturing derivatives market.

Kendrick has previously modeled Bitcoin’s growing share in optimized gold-BTC portfolios as volatility falls. He argued that this supports higher BTC prices over time, particularly if institutional access continues to expand under the current US administration.

According to Kendrick:

“This could be what’s needed for the next all-time high.”

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