Probability of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz Surges to 47%
According to the latest data from Polymarket, on June 14, the probability of Iran blocking or closing the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints—rose to 45% at one point. The data shows that this probability is nearly double the 24% recorded on June 11. Just a few hours earlier, Israel had finally carried out its long-standing threat to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude oil prices above $120.
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