Solana faces consolidation after failing to hold $180 breakout

Solana is currently in a retracement that unwound most of its late-May upside. After a monthly high of $179.68 on May 22, spot prices lost traction and declined to $148.00 by June 18, marking a 14.6% slide. Futures tracked the spot decline closely, ending the period down 11.2% at $148.30. Price action was defined by multiple failed breakout attempts above the $180 level and a shift toward lower highs that reinforced the short-term bearish structure.

The monthly high was followed by a series of rejections near that same threshold, with spot unable to close convincingly above $178 on multiple occasions. The rejection near $180 also aligned with a downturn in momentum indicators. The 14-day RSI, which crossed into overbought territory in late May, reversed course and settled around 46 by mid-June. This drop, combined with flattening short-term moving averages, showed momentum cooling.

Technically, the 10-day and 20-day SMAs converged at approximately $153.20. Their slopes flattened by mid-June, indicating the beginning of a consolidation range. Solana’s price then moved within a $144-$155 band for much of the second half of the period. While the broader market also paused, the lack of follow-through above $180 undercut Solana’s relative strength and left traders cautious on direction.

Graph showing SOL’s price, 10-day, and 20-day SMAs from May 18 to June 18, 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Price volatility remained elevated throughout. Spot prices posted an average intraday swing of $8.88, roughly 5% of daily value. That level of realized volatility rivals March highs and contributed to outsized slippage on both sides of the tape. Annualized volatility for spot stood at 57.7%, while futures pushed toward 81.8%. The divergence shows a growing gap between passive spot flows and leveraged derivatives positioning, which intensified during sharp moves.
CME Solana futures mirrored spot behavior across most of the period. Futures peaked at $179.55 on May 23 and fell to a low of $145.65 on June 12. The basis remained relatively stable, averaging –0.26%, suggesting a slight discount during most of the month. However, by June 18, the basis flipped to a mild contango with a 0.49% premium, signaling a renewed interest in carry trades and a return of marginal long-side demand from traders seeking to arbitrage the spread.

Graph showing Solana futures on CME from May 18 to June 18, 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Institutional interest in Solana has grown steadily over the past quarter, and this trend remained visible despite the June correction. The clearest evidence of this came through Solana’s futures market. The notional value of open interest across exchanges reached approximately $7.4 billion in mid-June, the highest level in over two years. Much of this activity has concentrated on CME’s newly listed Solana contracts, suggesting rising participation from hedge funds, trading firms, and institutional desks. Unlike offshore derivatives platforms, CME’s contracts settle in cash and serve as a regulated avenue for funds seeking Solana exposure without directly holding the token.

The derivatives expansion has run parallel to regulatory developments. VanEck registered its proposed Solana Spot ETF with the DTCC under the ticker “VSOL.” While this doesn’t constitute regulatory approval, it signals preparation for product launch and suggests that asset managers expect favorable SEC decisions in the coming weeks. Bloomberg ETF analysts have noted that the timeline for spot Solana ETF approvals may mirror that of Ethereum, potentially opening doors to broader U.S.-based institutional access before year-end. The presence of futures products and the growing derivatives infrastructure only strengthens the case for a spot ETF, forming a pattern similar to what preceded Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals.

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