Key Notes
- Despite a 40% drop in exchange reserves and strong whale accumulation, LINK price action remains lull.
- Active addresses and transaction counts remain stagnant, suggesting lack of retail participation.
- Holding above $12 keeps Chainlink poised for an $18–$20 breakout, as per analyst Ali Martinez.
After months of sideways action, Chainlink LINK $13.37 24h volatility: 2.9% Market cap: $9.07 B Vol. 24h: $412.54 M appears to be caught in a silent tug-of-war — not between bulls and bears — but between whale accumulation and retail disinterest.
Hovering between $12 and $15 for much of 2025, LINK is flashing signs of a coiled spring that lacks one crucial trigger, i.e., retail participation.
Why is LINK Moving Sideways?
According to analyst Banker , LINK’s sideways movement is a product of aggressive institutional accumulation, evidenced by consistent negative exchange netflows (-100,000 LINK per week) and surging withdrawal transactions, particularly since Q4 2024.
The strategic buildup has drained exchange reserves by roughly 40% year-to-date, signaling a clear intent by whales to corner supply without sparking premature price spikes.
But while whales have been busy building positions, retail traders appear to have tuned out. On-chain data shows flat active addresses (28K–32K/day) and stagnant transaction counts (9K/day), despite Chainlink’s expanding utility across oracle integrations.
Chainlink Active Addresses | Source: Banker
Even sharp price movements, like March 2025’s +5M LINK exchange inflow spike, were short-lived, highlighting retail’s minimal role in long-term momentum.
The Missing Catalyst
According to Santiment, only 32% of the total Chainlink supply is held by the top 10 wallets — a relatively decentralized profile compared to coins like Shiba Inu (62%).
🐳 Here are the percentages of supply held by various large cap assets' top 10 whales. USD Coin has just 27% of its supply held by its top 10 wallets, and Chainlink's is relatively low at 32%. Shiba Inu notably has the most centralized, with 62% of its supply held by its 10… pic.twitter.com/jdFUcmT6uC
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 3, 2025
While this reduces systemic risk from whale exits, it also means the network’s price trajectory depends heavily on broad retail engagement . Without it, the current accumulation phase may wither away soon.
Analyst Ali Martinez believes that holding above $12 will keep LINK positioned for a breakout toward $18–$20, aligning with the broader ascending channel, which shows LINK pressing against mid-channel resistance.
A break above $15.64, the local Fib 0.786 level, could open the door toward the 1.618 extension at $18.56, with further upside into the $23.29 and $28.02 zones (2.618 and 3.618 Fib levels respectively) if momentum follows through.
On the daily chart, the Balance of Power (BoP) remains volatile and neutral, reflecting the low-conviction chop between $12–$15. However, On-Balance Volume (OBV) still trends upward, suggesting steady accumulation behind the scenes.
BoP and OBV Levels on LINK 1D Chart | Source: TradingView
Should LINK lose the $12 level, support lies near $10.91 (the local Fib base), followed by a broader downside into the $10.02–$9 region, as seen on the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
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