So, crypto analyst Joao Wedson just dropped his latest take on the markets, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. He’s looking at Uniswap and Bitcoin, and the pictures he’s painting are pretty different from each other. Not the usual hype you often hear, which is maybe a good thing.
What’s Going On With Uniswap?
For Uniswap, or UNI, Wedson points to something interesting happening with its holders. Apparently, the big players—the top 100 addresses—are seeing their share of the total supply drop. That’s happening while smaller, short-term investors are accumulating.
To me, that sounds like the token might be spreading out, getting into more hands. It could be a sign that Uniswap is becoming a little less concentrated, maybe a bit more decentralized by 2025. But who really knows? These things can be hard to predict.
The Metcalfe Ratio Is Stirring Again
Here’s where it gets a bit technical, but stick with me. Wedson brought up UNI’s Metcalfe Ratio. Basically, it’s a way to gauge whether a network’s value is keeping up with its user growth. The ratio is climbing again.
A low ratio can sometimes mean the price hasn’t caught up to how much the network is growing. That might suggest room for the price to rise. On the flip side, a high ratio could mean the price has gotten ahead of itself, which is a classic sign of being overvalued. It’s not a perfect signal, but it’s one that data folks seem to like.
A Few Concerns for Bitcoin
Now, for Bitcoin, the outlook from Wedson seems a bit more cautious. He flagged a few things that might give traders pause.
For one, BTC has fallen below its trendline on the Russell 2000 index. That might not sound like a big deal to everyone, but these two have moved together pretty closely in the past. So a break like that could be read as a bearish signal. Maybe.
Then there’s the Sharpe Ratio, which is sitting below where it was earlier this year. In simple terms, that means the returns you’re getting for the risk you’re taking aren’t as good as they were. The price isn’t swinging as wildly, either, which sounds calm but might mean less opportunity for big moves.
And even though Bitcoin hit new highs in USD, it still hasn’t broken through in some other major currency pairs, like against the Euro or the Ruble. That’s a nuance that often gets lost in the headlines.
Of course, this is all just one person’s reading of the data. It’s not a recommendation, just observation. Markets have a mind of their own, and what looks like a clear signal one day can look like noise the next.
