Dogecoin ETF Approval: Can DOGE Price Hit $0.50 and Surge Toward $1 Next?

• With its latest SEC filing, REX-Osprey is positioning to bring the first Dogecoin ETF to market, potentially launching this week.
• An ETF approval, and accompanying inflows, could push DOGE to $0.50, possibly even toward $1 this year.

Excitement is growing around the Rex-Osprey DOGE ETF (ticker: DOJE), which could soon become the first-ever U.S.–based Dogecoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) to hit the market. Rex-Osprey, which previously rolled out a Solana Staking ETF, is now broadening its offerings with a Dogecoin product designed to give investors direct exposure to DOGE’s price movements, without requiring them actually to buy and hold the token themselves.

The proposed fund will allocate at least 80% of its assets into Dogecoin or related financial instruments, such as direct holdings, futures contracts, and swaps that track the performance of DOGE. However, it’s essential to note that DOJE isn’t a spot ETF, unlike the ones already approved for Bitcoin (BTC).

Instead, it’s structured as a 40-Act ETF, a design meant to fast-track regulatory approval and cut down on the drawn-out SEC review process.

Currently, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is still considering applications for a true spot Dogecoin ETF that were previously filed by asset managers like Grayscale and 21Shares. That backdrop makes the Rex-Osprey filing especially timely, coming right as memecoins are pulling in fresh attention from both retail traders and institutional investors.

ETF insiders are paying close attention. Nate Geraci recently commented that he expects the next two months to be wild for crypto ETFs, suggesting that approval odds are stronger than ever. The DOJE fund itself will rely on third-party custodians to handle the underlying Dogecoin, adding another layer of compliance and investor security.

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 90–94% chance that a Dogecoin ETF wins approval. This optimism is mirrored in the blockchain data: whale accumulation of DOGE is rising steadily, while retail traders have also been stepping up their activity.

Current DOGE Price Action

From a technical perspective, Dogecoin looks like it’s gearing up for a breakout. On the weekly chart, DOGE is pressing against a key resistance at $0.27, forming what looks like an ascending triangle setup, a pattern that often precedes sharp moves higher.

If the ETF approval lands in sync with this breakout, analysts say the stage could be set for a run toward $0.50, which would mark a 110% gain from current levels.

For now, DOGE is trading at $0.2456, up 4.38% on the day, adding to a 6.2% gain over the past month and more than 140% growth in the last year.

Veteran analyst XForceGlobal weighed in on the cycle structure, noting, “DOGE still amazes me because it has a pretty conventional textbook 5-wave move since its inception. This cycle should finish with an all-time high, with a minimum target around $1, which is realistic, and a maximum target going into double digits.”

Not everyone thinks it’s guaranteed, though. Analyst Joao Wedson cautions that DOGE’s surge depends heavily on short-term holder (STH) supply trends: “Dogecoin could rally if Short-Term Holders’ Supply continues to rise, and it looks like accumulation has already started. Historically, every time STH Supply increased, it triggered a violent bull market for DOGE.”

All of this comes as broader macroeconomic forces align. Markets are now betting on a potential 50-basis-point rate cut from the Fed on September 17, and altcoins are beginning to respond. A Fed pivot toward looser policy and potential liquidity injections could be just what’s needed to ignite the next altcoin season.