Bitcoin has climbed above $114K this week after climbing by almost 4% during the period. But the struggle might not be over yet.
Joao Wedson, for one, warned that Bitcoin’s recent uptick may not be as secure as it looks.
Bitcoin on Thin Ice?
In his latest tweet, Alphractal founder and crypto analyst Joao Wedson questioned whether Bitcoin could face a potential “rug pull.” He said that despite the crypto asset climbing above $114K, a decisive shift in sentiment would only come if the price breaks through the $116K resistance.
On the downside, Wedson observed $110.4K as key support and warned that a breach below $110K could send BTC toward the $105K liquidity zone. While the $107K level may have served as a local bottom, he added that there is a need for confirmation from broader market signals.
Specifically, Wedson is waiting for Bitcoin’s dominance to show a new top alongside improvements in Buy/Sell Pressure Delta, the Sharpe Ratio, rising Open Interest, and on-chain reversal trends. Without these signals, he believes the best approach is patience.
The recent TFT AI forecast also painted an equally cautious outlook for Bitcoin over the next 30 days. While the model projects a mostly neutral trend within the $108,000-$120,000 range, it highlighted the growing uncertainty, particularly toward the end of September. In the short term, Bitcoin is expected to dip slightly, with a 7-day forecast showing a decline to $109,451 and a 30-day projection to $108,771.
The key takeaway, however, isn’t the modest downward bias but the sharp widening of confidence intervals as uncertainty spikes above 50% near early October, which points to the possibility of intense volatility.
Another Red Flag
Additionally, almost 88% of circulating Bitcoin is currently profitable. This level has previously witnessed overextended conditions. In past cycles, similar profit margins prompted corrections as traders secured earnings.
While not certain, the pattern raises concerns that Bitcoin could face turbulence despite broader bullish momentum.
