Ethereum Tests Support: Holder Conviction Sets Stage for a Rebound to $4,775

Ethereum has seen a 4% decline in recent days, pulling the altcoin king just under $4,500. 

While this short-term dip may concern some traders, the long-term outlook remains bullish as strong fundamentals and investor behavior suggest resilience ahead.

Ethereum Supply Is Maturing

Ethereum supply has matured significantly, reinforcing investor confidence in the asset’s long-term strength. Since the beginning of the month, the 3-6 month-old supply has grown by 1.76 million ETH, now valued at nearly $8 billion. This indicates that holders refrained from liquidating even during market volatility.

Such conviction suggests that investors anticipate higher prices and are willing to ride out short-term declines. By keeping ETH locked, these holders are reducing the circulating supply, which can create favorable conditions for upward price momentum when demand returns. This behavior is a bullish foundation for Ethereum’s growth.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Ethereum Supply Last Active 3-6 Months Ago. Source: Glassnode

On the technical side, Ethereum’s momentum appears mixed in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is nearing a bearish crossover, signaling the possibility of short-lived downside pressure. This aligns with ETH’s recent price slip below the $4,500 level.

However, the broader market cues remain constructive. Even if the MACD confirms a bearish crossover, investor sentiment and maturing supply could support a quick recovery. Such dynamics highlight that any decline would likely be temporary, with ETH primed for a strong rebound soon after.

ETH MACD. Source: TradingView

ETH Price Could Bounce Back

Ethereum is currently trading at $4,495, just below the $4,500 support line. It has not yet closed below $4,500, so the support is still valid.

The maturing supply and bullish long-term outlook indicate that Ethereum could bounce from the support. With fewer coins entering circulation, the altcoin has structural support for renewed upward momentum to $4,775 despite short-term volatility.

ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if the price closes below the support, ETH may slip toward $4,307, invalidating the bullish outlook.