XRP’s Path to $5 Depends on SEC ETF Green Light and Surpassing the $3.07 Barrier

XRP has climbed almost 10% in the past two weeks, approaching its record high of $3.65, as market participants look for possible triggers for further upward movement. Experts point to the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts in 2025 as a primary factor driving capital into riskier assets, with

displaying indications of a significant breakout. Chart patterns such as a bullish flag and a larger upward trend since 2024 indicate potential price objectives of $5 and $15. CoinCodex forecasts that XRP could revisit its $3.65 high by December 6, with a chance of moving toward $4 or beyond, depending on SEC approval of spot XRP ETFs and increased market participation.

The SEC’s upcoming verdict on several XRP ETF filings is seen as a pivotal moment. If approved, it could mirror the institutional investments observed with

and ETFs, furthering XRP’s use in international payments. Ripple’s latest collaborations with DBS and Franklin Templeton, along with its pursuit of a national banking charter, enhance its appeal to institutional investors. Should Ripple secure the banking charter, expected by late October 2025, it would gain federal trust bank status, potentially accelerating global institutional adoption.

On-chain analytics reveal growing accumulation, with more than 1.2 billion XRP transferred to leading exchange reserves in September 2025. Nevertheless, holders are withdrawing XRP from exchanges, reflecting strong long-term conviction. The network has seen $24 million in fresh inflows, and a spike in the NVT ratio (network value to transaction volume) points to increased adoption and short-term price swings. Technical analysis highlights a completed head-and-shoulders reversal against Ethereum, suggesting XRP’s lag behind other altcoins may be ending.

XRP is currently challenging short-term resistance at $3.07; a close above this threshold could open the door to $3.65 and $4.50. Analysts warn that a drop to $2.73 might prompt a correction, but the overall bullish outlook remains if institutional inflows follow BTC and ETH patterns. Coinpedia and Finance Magnates estimate XRP could hit $4.00 or $3.00, respectively, with Fibonacci retracement and Bollinger Band signals influencing near-term price trends.

Ripple’s legal settlement with the SEC, concluded in June 2025, has eliminated regulatory ambiguity, allowing the company to keep $75 million of a $125 million escrowed penalty. This settlement affirms XRP’s classification as a non-security in secondary markets, increasing institutional trust. Combined with Ripple’s expansion into Africa and Asia, this development strengthens XRP’s role in global payments and aviation finance.

Traders are watching critical resistance points, such as $3.38 (the upper Bollinger Band) and $3.66, with a breakout potentially pushing XRP to $4.00. If $3.00 fails to hold as support, a deeper pullback to the $2.60–$2.70 range could occur. For September 2025, the average price projection is between $2.80 and $3.20, with significant upside hinging on regulatory outcomes.