Dogecoin Falls 9%: ETF Optimism Clashes with SEC Challenges?

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According to Coinglass, Dogecoin (DOGE) has dropped by 9% in the last week, with its price at $0.2409 as of September 2025. Despite this recent decline, optimism is building among traders and analysts, fueled by anticipation for spot ETFs and increasing institutional involvement. The 21Shares

ETF (TDOG) was recently listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) prelaunch roster, indicating steps toward a possible rollout. This comes after the launch of the REX-Osprey ETF (DOJE) last week, marking the first U.S.-listed fund to provide direct access to the coin.

Investors are keeping a close eye on regulatory developments. While the DTCC listing suggests that the 21Shares ETF is nearing completion, it does not ensure approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC’s evaluation process for crypto ETFs remains unclear, often involving delays due to public feedback and legal disputes. Bitwise’s DOGE ETF proposal is also awaiting a decision, which may not arrive until early 2026. Experts warn that regulatory ambiguity continues to pose a significant risk for short-term price action.

Technical analysis points to a possible upward move. Crypto chartist Ali Martinez identified the current price range as a favorable entry for buyers ahead of a potential rally to $0.50. Analyst Mags, also known as TheScalpingPro, set a more aggressive target of $1, suggesting a 3.3x increase from current prices is within reach. These predictions are consistent with Dogecoin’s historical surges, such as its 170-fold jump in 2020 despite early doubts. Institutional moves add to the positive outlook: CleanCore Solutions recently acquired 100 million DOGE, bringing its total holdings to over 600 million coins, now worth $160 million. Additionally, Alex Spiro, legal counsel for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, is heading a Dogecoin treasury firm aiming to raise $200 million to oversee DOGE reserves.

On-chain metrics present a mixed picture. Coinglass reported $9.20 million in DOGE liquidations over the past day, with $6.77 million in long positions closed, indicating short-term selling pressure. However, Bitinfocharts observed a rise in large holders, with wallets containing 10–100 billion DOGE increasing to two and those with 1–10 million DOGE climbing to 4,293 from 4,275. This points to growing accumulation by major investors, hinting at sustained confidence in the asset.

Wider market trends highlight the importance of ETF introductions. The REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE) features a 1.5% expense ratio and allocates 60.45% of its assets to the CME CF DOGE-USD New York Rate. While DOJE’s early performance is yet to be proven, its structure—holding Dogecoin directly and offering staking rewards—may appeal to those seeking exposure to the meme coin without managing custody themselves. Should the 21Shares ETF receive approval, it would likely attract similar interest, given the company’s experience with other crypto ETPs.

Despite positive drivers, challenges remain. The SEC’s approach to crypto ETFs is still unpredictable, as shown by previous rejections of

ETF applications, reflecting the regulator’s cautious stance. Furthermore, the inherent volatility of meme coins, combined with macroeconomic influences like interest rates and overall market mood, could intensify price fluctuations. Market participants should also consider the risks of regulatory intervention or manipulation, which continue to be unresolved concerns in the crypto industry.

The intersection of ETF progress, institutional engagement, and technical optimism marks a crucial phase for Dogecoin. Although the 9% weekly drop highlights recent instability, the broader story of increasing institutional involvement and regulatory advancements points to a possible inflection point. As the SEC’s verdict on the 21Shares ETF approaches, the market is likely to remain divided between cautious optimism and risk aversion, with outcomes depending on regulatory clarity and overall market conditions.

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