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Analysis: Bitcoin implied volatility drops to lowest level since 2023, market may be poised for decisive move

Analysis: Bitcoin implied volatility drops to lowest level since 2023, market may be poised for decisive move

Chaincatcher2025/09/24 10:54
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ChainCatcher news, according to analysis by XWIN Research, Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. In 2023, this low point previously appeared before Bitcoin surged 325% from $29,000 to $124,000. Now, whether this "calm before the storm" scenario is repeating has attracted attention.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant supports this: First, exchange reserves are declining, with total balances approaching multi-year lows, indicating that the amount of Bitcoin available for immediate sale is decreasing. Historically, this often signals a supply squeeze when demand rises.

Second, the MVRV ratio is in a neutral range, meaning investors are neither heavily underwater nor enjoying excessive profits. The market is not under pressure from panic selling or profit-taking, and a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment prevails. Third, funding rates are balanced, with neither excessive long nor short positions, which corresponds to the subdued volatility and shows that the market is accumulating energy.

These three signals together paint a consistent picture: the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is decreasing, investors are holding their coins, and the derivatives market remains calm. Although implied volatility indicates that the current period is one of the calmest in years, historical experience shows that such periods rarely last long.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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