Dogecoin ETF Surge and Volatility Concerns: Are Major Holders Wagering on a Surge or a Slump?

Experts have increased their price projections for

(DOGE), anticipating a possible rise of 195% to $0.74, with some suggesting it could reach between $1.30 and $1.60 based on chart analysis and market trends. This optimistic forecast is supported by several factors, such as heightened activity from large holders, regulatory shifts, and growing speculation around ETFs.

There has been a notable uptick in whale accumulation, as major investors acquired 2 billion

over the past day, reflecting strong belief in the asset’s short-term prospects. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez interprets this buying as a calculated move ahead of a potential price surge. "Large holders are preparing for a significant price movement," Martinez commented, pointing to a drop in exchange reserves to their lowest point in a year as evidence of less selling and increased demand.

The launch of a spot Dogecoin ETF, Rex Shares’ DOJE, on September 11, 2025, has further lifted investor confidence. Although the ETF’s first-day trading volume was $17 million—smaller than that of

ETFs—it matches the activity seen in mid-sized altcoins and suggests rising institutional participation. The SEC’s recent decision to streamline crypto ETF approvals has also boosted expectations for more applications, including those from Invesco and VanEck. According to Polymarket, there is a 99% chance of ETF approval, with the Rex-Osprey ETF already serving as a model for broader acceptance.

Technical signals and historical trends further support the positive outlook. Analyst Javon Marks pointed out that Dogecoin’s current consolidation between $0.236 and $0.244 marks a pivotal moment. If DOGE breaks above $0.244, it could spark a rally, with past patterns indicating a possible 195% jump to exceed its previous peak of $0.73905. "Historical data reveals similar setups have led to significant rallies," Marks observed, underlining the importance of liquidity and institutional backing.

On the other hand, broader economic factors present a mixed picture. A proposed GitHub update aims to cut Dogecoin’s yearly issuance from 5 billion to 500 million coins by 2026, which would reduce inflation from 3.3% to 0.33% and potentially increase scarcity. However, developers warn that sudden changes could disrupt mining activity, as happened with Litecoin’s 2015 halving. While 58% of the community supports the proposal, core developers emphasize that only a critical need should justify changing a monetary policy that has been in place for ten years.

Market swings continue to pose risks. On September 24, DOGE perpetual futures funding rates hit +0.0062%, indicating an excess of bullish bets. A recent sharp downturn wiped out $1.7 billion in leveraged altcoin positions, with DOGE’s open interest climbing 54% before the drop. This demonstrates the coin’s vulnerability to rapid sell-offs in highly leveraged markets.

In spite of these uncertainties, the mix of ETF enthusiasm, large-scale accumulation, and technical strength has set the stage for Dogecoin’s potential breakout. The next few weeks will reveal whether institutional inflows can overcome liquidity constraints and regulatory headwinds.