Bitcoin’s harmonic formations indicate evolving market behavior, challenging previous cycle patterns

Technical signals for Bitcoin (BTC) currently point to a possible short-term bounce, as a distinct harmonic pattern is emerging on its 1-hour chart. Bitget analysts have spotted a Bearish Bat formation, a chart pattern that often highlights potential reversal areas (PRZ) at important Fibonacci retracement points. The pattern is now completing its final CD segment, with anticipated price targets ranging from $109,512 (0.886 Fib) to $110,382 (1.0 Fib) title2 [ 2 ]. This indicates

could see gains of about 3.68–4.51% from its present value near $105,226, which fits with the overall market’s recovery mood following recent declines triggered by geopolitical events title2 [ 2 ].

The Bearish Bat pattern is generally interpreted as bullish until it completes, and its appearance coincides with Bitcoin’s rebound from the $102,000 support level after escalated tensions between Israel and Iran. Whether the pattern holds will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to break through the PRZ, which could spark a surge of short-term buying from both traders and institutions. Should

manage to surpass the $110,000 mark, it would validate the pattern and potentially fuel further upward movement. Still, experts warn that renewed geopolitical instability or macroeconomic shocks could undermine the pattern if risk aversion returns title2 [ 2 ].

Bitcoin’s price trends are being shaped by shifting market forces. The traditional four-year cycle, which has historically been linked to halving events, appears to be changing due to factors like the launch of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, increased institutional involvement, and clearer regulations. Matthew Hougan, Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer, pointed out that the 2024 halving lined up with a record high of $73,000 in March 2024—months ahead of the event—unlike previous cycles where peaks came 12–18 months after the halving. This change highlights stronger institutional demand and reduced price swings, as long-term holders and steady inflows help prevent sharp corrections title1 [ 1 ].

Recent downward corrections have also been less drastic than in past cycles. For example, the largest drop in the current cycle has been about 26%, much less severe than the 77–84% declines seen in 2017 and 2021. Ryan Chow of

attributes this resilience to the growing role of institutional investors and the accumulation by long-term holders, which has helped cushion against steep sell-offs. While corrections of 30–50% could still occur due to macroeconomic or regulatory surprises, the era of 70–80% plunges is increasingly seen as a thing of the past title1 [ 1 ].

For market participants, the harmonic pattern presents a strategic chance to benefit from Bitcoin’s short-term momentum. Completion of the pattern at the PRZ could coincide with a broader rally, especially if macroeconomic factors remain supportive. However, the effectiveness of this setup depends on Bitcoin’s ability to sustain liquidity and avoid renewed volatility from external shocks. Experts advise keeping an eye on key levels, such as the $105,000 support and $110,000 resistance, as well as monitoring the global geopolitical environment for possible disruptions title2 [ 2 ].

The significance of this technical formation goes beyond immediate trading tactics. If Bitcoin continues to break away from its historic four-year cycle, it may indicate a transition to a more mature, macro-driven market structure. This would be consistent with the increasing integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance, as shown by the approval of spot ETFs and the accumulation of Bitcoin by publicly traded firms. As institutional involvement grows and regulatory standards develop, Bitcoin’s price movements may increasingly mirror broader economic trends, rather than being dictated solely by on-chain events like halvings title1 [ 1 ].