DATs' Collapse Resembles 2008 CDO Crisis as Premiums Plummet

Recent studies indicate that digital asset treasury (DAT) firms are facing a notable drop in premiums as market net asset values (mNAVs) shrink due to investor scrutiny and an oversupply of similar strategies. The mNAV, which compares a company’s enterprise value to its crypto asset holdings, has dipped below important levels for several prominent DATs, making it harder for them to secure funding for new acquisitions. Observations from Standard Chartered and NYDIG suggest that this development increases risks for smaller companies and may lead to more mergers and acquisitions within the sector.

The decline in mNAVs stems from several causes, such as market oversaturation, increased investor wariness, and the widespread adoption of comparable approaches. Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global head of research, pointed out that more than 89 firms have followed the model established by

(MSTR), which began accumulating for its treasury in 2020. As more players enter the field, it has become harder for companies to stand out, resulting in lower premiums and waning investor trust. Cipolaro stressed that DATs need to take active steps, such as initiating share buybacks, to help support their stock prices as market conditions tighten.

NYDIG’s data reveals that DATs are slowing their pace of Bitcoin accumulation. While holdings once reached a high of 840,000 BTC, the average amount purchased has dropped sharply—from a peak of 14,000 BTC in 2025 to just 1,200 BTC in August. This trend mirrors broader shifts in the market, including investors cashing in profits and companies adjusting their strategies. The narrowing difference between share prices and the value of underlying crypto assets is making it even harder for DATs to uphold their investment appeal.

Analysts at Standard Chartered cautioned that the ongoing mNAV decline could speed up industry consolidation, benefiting larger organizations that can access cheaper capital and staking returns. DATs focused on Ethereum, like Bitmine (BMNR), are expected to outperform those centered on Bitcoin, thanks to their ability to earn extra income through staking. Conversely, firms sticking solely to Bitcoin face more significant challenges, with the bank predicting a move toward rotating existing coins rather than bringing in substantial new investments.

The dangers for DATs go beyond just falling mNAVs. Breed VC warned of a possible “death spiral,” where low share prices force companies to issue more shares at a discount, putting further downward pressure on valuations. This risk is heightened by regulatory ambiguity and the absence of robust business models among firms that have shifted entirely to crypto treasuries, leaving traditional operations behind. Josip Rupena, CEO of crypto lender Milo, compared DAT strategies to the pre-2008 collateralized debt obligations, cautioning that investors may be exposed to hidden risks.

Despite these headwinds, some experts maintain a guarded sense of optimism. Ash Crypto notes that a weakening U.S. dollar and expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide a boost for both Bitcoin and DATs. Nonetheless, short-term instability remains an issue, as Bitcoin recently dipped below $105,000 following a 25-basis-point rate reduction by the Fed. The recent outflow of institutional funds from Bitcoin ETFs in August further highlights the current market’s vulnerability.

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