SEC's Reluctance on XRP ETF: Legal Uncertainty and Market Readiness Pose Obstacles for BlackRock

There is ongoing speculation about BlackRock possibly entering the

ETF sector, but the company has not yet submitted an official application. Recent changes in regulations and shifts in the market are key elements affecting the chances of such a fund being launched. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decisions on several XRP ETF filings, including those from and Franklin Templeton, pushing the timeline to October 2025. These delays reflect the SEC’s careful stance toward approving ETFs linked to XRP, which is still involved in a lengthy legal battle with the SEC SEC Postpones Decisions on Solana and XRP ETF Applications [ 3 ].

The SEC’s position on XRP regulation remains a significant obstacle. Historically, the agency has required at least half a year of XRP futures trading on regulated exchanges like Coinbase Derivatives before considering ETF approval Full List of XRP ETFs Awaiting SEC Approval [ 1 ]. Although CME Group now lists XRP futures, the SEC’s uncertainty over whether XRP is a commodity or a security continues. This uncertainty is rooted in the ongoing lawsuit between the SEC and Ripple, XRP’s issuer, which is accused of unregistered securities offerings. Even after a 2023 court decision that favored Ripple, the legal process is still unresolved, making the regulatory path for XRP ETFs unclear BlackRock Pushes SEC to Approve XRP ETFs Before July [ 2 ].

Market development is another important factor. While XRP is fourth in terms of market capitalization, it trails behind

and in both trading activity and institutional uptake. BlackRock, which has already rolled out ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, has focused on these more established cryptocurrencies. Jay Jacobs, who leads BlackRock’s ETF division, pointed to the “mature” infrastructure and greater trading volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum as reasons for their prioritization BlackRock Pushes SEC to Approve XRP ETFs Before July [ 2 ]. Still, experts such as Nate Geraci from The ETF Store believe that BlackRock will eventually move into the XRP ETF market, given its leading position in the ETF space and the opportunity to meet altcoin demand BlackRock Pushes SEC to Approve XRP ETFs Before July [ 2 ].

Recent SEC guidance on staking—clarifying that protocol staking is

considered a securities transaction—has also changed the landscape SEC Crypto Staking Guidance Win for Industry Regulations [ 5 ]. While this could open the door for ETFs that include staking, BlackRock’s current ETF proposals do not feature staking, in line with the SEC’s more cautious approach. For example, the SEC has postponed its decision on BlackRock’s Ethereum staking proposal until October 30 SEC Postpones Decisions on Solana and XRP ETF Applications [ 3 ]. This indicates that, for now, regulators prefer simpler ETF structures.

Market predictions and investor attitudes add further complexity. Bloomberg analysts project a 95% chance that XRP ETFs will be approved by October 2025, citing increased institutional interest and clearer regulations XRP SEC Countdown 2025: Your Complete ETF Guide [ 4 ]. Should approval be granted, an XRP ETF could attract substantial investment, possibly raising XRP’s price from $2.17 to $10 BlackRock Pushes SEC to Approve XRP ETFs Before July [ 2 ]. Nonetheless, there are still risks, such as increased volatility from ETF-related liquidity changes and the possibility that the SEC could reject applications due to ongoing legal or market issues XRP SEC Countdown 2025: Your Complete ETF Guide [ 4 ].

Competition from other XRP ETF applicants is also a factor. Firms like Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have already submitted their applications, with final verdicts expected in October 2025 Full List of XRP ETFs Awaiting SEC Approval [ 1 ]. If BlackRock enters the market, it will face strong competition, but its reputation and distribution capabilities could give it an edge. At the same time, the SEC’s broader regulatory initiatives, such as “Project Crypto” aimed at updating digital asset rules, could also impact its decisions regarding XRP ETFs SEC Postpones Decisions on Solana and XRP ETF Applications [ 3 ].

To sum up, while BlackRock’s potential XRP ETF is still uncertain, the interplay of regulatory changes, market interest, and competition will determine its prospects. The SEC’s decisions in October 2025 will be a crucial turning point, with the results likely to have significant effects on the broader crypto market.