Hard Math: Crypto Treasuries Face 50% Downside on PIPE Selling Pressure

CryptoQuant says crypto treasuries that raised money through PIPE deals face sharp selling pressure.

The analytics firm notes several stocks now trade above their PIPE price. As lock-up periods end, PIPE investors can sell and add supply.

The report states companies “have suffered major drawdowns, with share prices often gravitating toward their PIPE issuance levels.”

It adds that some names “may face further declines of up to 50%.” That assessment focuses on Bitcoin treasury companies and similar firms that used PIPE financing in 2025.

This warning sits inside a crowded sector. Many crypto treasuries issued discounted shares to raise cash quickly. Therefore, the PIPE overhang becomes a central driver for price action when unlocks arrive.

How PIPE Deals Create Dilution and Overhang in Crypto Treasuries

A PIPE deal lets private investors buy new shares below market price. Companies use PIPE financing for speed and flexibility. In crypto treasuries, this path became common during 2025.

However, CryptoQuant explains the trade-off in simple terms. “The PIPE increases the amount of shares in circulation, diluting existing shareholders.”

When the lock-up ends, the resale of new PIPE shares creates an overhang. That overhang can pressure the stock toward its PIPE price.

This is a mechanics story, not sentiment. More shares enter the float at known PIPE issuance levels.

As PIPE investors seek liquidity, crypto treasuries encounter a supply surge. Consequently, price discovery often leans toward the PIPE line.

Kindly MD (NAKA) Case: Crypto Treasuries and PIPE Price Gravity

Kindly MD (NAKA) shows the PIPE selling pressure in detail. The stock climbed after the PIPE announcement. Later, it moved toward the PIPE price as shares unlocked.

CryptoQuant tracks the numbers. NAKA rose from about $1.80 in late April to almost $35 intraday in late May. After unlocks, it fell 97% to a low near $1.16, “basically touching its $1.12 PIPE price.”

The firm ties the move to “actual or anticipated selling from PIPE investors.”

It also notes a single-day drop of more than half when PIPE shares unlocked. In this example, the PIPE price acted like a magnet for the crypto treasury stock .

Strive (ASST) and Cantor Equity Partners (CEP): More Crypto Treasuries Under Pressure

Strive Inc. (ASST) appears across CryptoQuant’s review of crypto treasuries. The stock closed Thursday at $2.75, down 78% from its 2025 peak near $13 in late May. The firm notes ASST’s PIPE at $1.35.

Because PIPE investors can sell next month, CryptoQuant says this setup “would imply a 55% price drop from current levels,” if shares move toward the PIPE issuance level. That framing stays mechanical and ties to the PIPE price.

A similar dynamic covers Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), a blank-check company merging with Twenty One Capital, a crypto treasury firm.

CEP priced its PIPE at $10. The stock is down nearly 70% from its high to under $20. Therefore, the firm says that also “implies a potential 50% price drop from its current level,” if price converges to the PIPE line.

Bitcoin Context: Crypto Treasuries Track BTC While Overhang Builds

The Bitcoin backdrop matters to crypto treasuries with PIPE deals.

CryptoQuant writes that “a sustained rally in Bitcoin is the only likely catalyst that could prevent further declines in these stocks.”

Without that rally, the firm says many names may “continue trending toward — or below — their PIPE prices.”

Other analysts in the coverage point to balance-sheet pressure. They note some crypto treasuries now trade close to the value of their crypto holdings.

When equity values converge with assets, supply can rise. That can magnify the PIPE selling pressure during unlocks.

Taken together, the signals stay structural. Crypto treasuries, PIPE financing, dilution, lock-up timelines, and the PIPE price interact with BTC momentum.

The examples—Kindly MD (NAKA), Strive (ASST), and CEP / Twenty One Capital—show how PIPE issuance levels can anchor stock moves across the sector.