Bitcoin’s latest pullback, roughly 12% below its all-time high of $124,000 all-time high, has sparked debate over whether this is a natural correction or an early warning of deeper risks.
But data shows that the dip shows a maturing market where corrections reset leverage, not destroy momentum.
Natural Cool-Off or Warning Shot
The decline is larger than the immediate post-ATH dips seen in earlier runs but remains shallow compared with the 70%-80% drawdowns that have historically marked bear markets. According to CryptoQuant, instead of pointing to a structural weakness, the move fits a pattern of controlled retracement within an ongoing expansion phase.
Since early 2024, Bitcoin has notched a series of clear run-ATH increments, which means that the broader trend remains upward.
In the current scenario, technical levels indicate that as long as price holds above the $109,000-$110,000 support zone and the drawdown does not exceed roughly 15%, the base case favors consolidation and a potential retest of the $118,000-$122,000 range.
Derivatives data also support this view as they show open interest starting to rebuild after a brief contraction, while funding rates remain within normal bounds. CryptoQuant found that these conditions typically come before renewed momentum rather than a capitulatory flush.
Unlike the retail mania of 2017 or the explosive surge-and-crash of 2021, CryptoQuant said that the current Bitcoin cycle looks more balanced. Institutional demand and spot ETF inflows provide steady upward momentum, while derivatives activity introduced periodic 10%-20% corrections.
“The key takeaway is that the market may experience a sequence of moderate 10%-20% pullbacks rather than a single, capitulatory crash.”
Next Peak Won’t Arrive Until 2026
CryptoPotato had recently reported that several macroeconomic forces are reshaping Bitcoin’s once-reliable four-year cycle. Analysts are now projecting the next major peak to arrive in 2026 instead of the typical 2024-2025 window. Historically, Bitcoin’s halving events have set the rhythm for market surges, but rising US interest rates and the maturity of corporate debt are altering that timeline.
Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal said that corporate bonds often follow 4-5.4-year maturities, which gradually influences economic slowdowns and extends the business cycle. Higher borrowing costs are squeezing consumers while Wall Street benefits from elevated bond yields, creating an environment where institutional liquidity outweighs retail participation.
This means Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly tied to monetary policy and global capital flows rather than purely halving-driven supply shock. Such a combination of longer debt cycles, restrictive rate policy, and strong institutional buying could delay the next euphoric top by at least a year.
