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DAT Sector Enters "Downward Spiral" as mNAV Measure Collapses

DAT Sector Enters "Downward Spiral" as mNAV Measure Collapses

Bitget-RWA2025/09/27 20:24
By:Coin World

- NYDIG urges Bitcoin treasury firms to abandon misleading mNAV metric, citing systemic risks. - Market saturation and investor caution have eroded mNAV, triggering consolidation and stock declines. - Ethereum-based treasuries show resilience via staking yields, contrasting with BTC/ETH/SOL declines. - Industry experts warn of "death spiral" for smaller DATs as mNAVs remain depressed.

DAT Sector Enters

NYDIG has urged

treasury firms to stop relying on the market net asset value (mNAV) metric, arguing that it gives a false impression and heightens systemic dangers within the digital asset treasury (DAT) industry. According to the company’s analysis, mNAV—which measures a company’s enterprise value against its crypto reserves—has become an unreliable gauge of stability, especially as increased market competition and investor wariness compress the ratio. Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global research head, pointed out that the shrinking difference between share prices and crypto assets has made the sector more fragile, with investor concerns over token unlocks, changes in corporate direction, and a lack of unique treasury approaches all contributing to the downturn.

Previously, mNAV was a major incentive for DATs to issue new shares and grow their crypto portfolios, but it has now suffered considerable decline. Standard Chartered Bank noted that several prominent DATs have fallen below the crucial mNAV level of 1.0, effectively stopping them from expanding their assets. This drop is largely due to market saturation, as

(formerly MicroStrategy)’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy inspired over 89 similar companies, many of which now struggle to remain sustainable. The bank cautioned that consolidation is unavoidable, with dominant players like Strategy and Bitmine expected to absorb weaker competitors trading at lower valuations.

The DAT industry’s dependence on mNAV has revealed deep-seated weaknesses. When mNAV is above 1.0, firms can raise funds at a premium to purchase more crypto, but once it falls below that point, the model becomes damaging. For example, Strategy Inc.’s mNAV dropped from more than 6.0x in 2021 to less than 2.0x by mid-2025, signaling waning investor trust and dilution issues. In contrast, Ethereum-focused treasuries have remained more stable thanks to staking rewards, which offer extra revenue. This difference highlights the value of yield-generating tactics for DAT sustainability.

NYDIG’s criticism of mNAV reflects wider industry worries. Data from Artemis Analytics shows a three-month slide in mNAVs for

, ETH, and SOL treasuries, hitting a low in September. This decline has led to steep share price drops, such as KindlyMD’s NAKA stock, which plunged 55% in one day and 96% since May. Peter Schiff, a well-known DAT skeptic, compared the model to “Ponzi schemes built on a pyramid,” using NAKA’s collapse as evidence of the risks. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy’s shrinking NAV has limited its Bitcoin buying, with its multiple falling from 1.75x in June to 1.24x by September.

The consequences for the DAT industry are significant. Standard Chartered forecasts that only a select few companies will maintain mNAV premiums by executing disciplined and creative strategies. NYDIG stresses that mNAV’s instability threatens lasting value, recommending a focus on increasing Bitcoin per share and strengthening capital structures. For instance, Strategy’s “preferred equity only” approach, which avoids debt maturities, aims to lower refinancing risks during turbulent periods. The company’s all-stock purchase of Semler Scientific, which brought in 5,816 Bitcoin, demonstrates a move toward consolidating assets and improving capital use.

Looking forward, the DAT sector is at a pivotal point. While larger firms with access to cheap capital and staking income are likely to lead, smaller companies may face a “death spiral” as mNAVs stay low. NYDIG’s recommendation to move away from mNAV highlights the importance of transparency and solid capital frameworks as the sector matures. As regulatory pressure and market doubt increase, the ability to combine crypto accumulation with operational strength will decide which DATs succeed in the changing environment.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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