- Polymarket shows 45% odds of extended US shutdown.
- If true, it would be the longest shutdown in history.
- Market sentiment reflects growing political deadlock.
Polymarket Predicts High Risk of Record Shutdown
According to the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, there is now a 45% chance the ongoing or upcoming U.S. government shutdown could become the longest in history. As political tension continues to mount in Washington, traders are placing serious bets on a prolonged government stall.
The prediction markets often provide real-time insight into public sentiment and political expectations. With nearly half the market now betting on a record-breaking shutdown, it’s clear that confidence in a swift resolution is waning fast.
What’s Driving the Shutdown Concerns?
The rising odds are a reflection of the increasing gridlock in U.S. Congress, where debates over budget allocations, spending cuts, and partisan demands have put the federal government on the edge of a shutdown.
Previous shutdowns have ended relatively quickly under mounting public and economic pressure. However, this time, the deadlock appears more entrenched, and Polymarket traders see a real risk that it could drag on longer than any in history — potentially exceeding the 34-day record set in 2018-2019.
A Decentralized Glimpse Into Political Risk
Polymarket, which allows users to bet on real-world events using crypto, is gaining popularity as a barometer for political risk. Its prediction markets offer a unique perspective compared to traditional polls or analyst forecasts, often reacting faster to emerging news and insider expectations.
While prediction markets aren’t guarantees, they can serve as useful indicators of how the public and informed communities are interpreting fast-moving events — in this case, a serious threat to U.S. government operations.
