Morning Minute: Polymarket Prepares for Imminent U.S. Launch

🟣 Polymarket’s U.S. Return: “Green Light” Becomes Go-Time

After four years on the sidelines, the world’s biggest prediction market is set to reopen to U.S. users.

Potentially as soon as today…

📌 What Happened

To understand how we arrive at Polymarket potentially launching in the U.S. as soon as today, let’s look at the timeline.

• In July, Polymarket bought QCX/QC Clearing (QCEX) for $112M, securing a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse.
• On September 3, CFTC staff issued a no-action letter giving limited relief on event-contract reporting/recordkeeping for those entities.
• Polymarket has since started self-certifying event contracts (sports, elections), clearing the final runway to switch the U.S. platform on.
  • Under CFTC rules, once a DCM files a certification, the agency has one business day to object; absent objection, the market can list immediately.
• In its filings, Polymarket U.S. explicitly says listings will occur “no earlier than October 2, 2025,” which is why the platform could open as soon as tomorrow. Though other sources are reporting October 7, 2025.

There you have it. Polymarket U.S. is coming, if not today, soon.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

“Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the U.S.A by the @CFTC.” -CEO Shayne Coplan, following the no-action letter.

🧠 Why It Matters

If you’re in the U.S., this means you can use Polymarket without a VPN—just a normal U.S. account.

Because it’s running on a CFTC-licensed venue, expect a quick KYC/identity check and standard U.S. compliance (some state-by-state limits may apply at launch).

The first listings should look familiar, likely sports spreads/totals and “who wins” elections.

And, thanks to the self-certification process, they can appear as soon as the next business day after filing (i.e. today).

Access will likely start on the official U.S. web app and then roll into App Store / Google Play once approvals are cleared (another huge potential lift - Polymarket mobile).

Overall this is clearly huge for U.S. adoption and should pour gasoline on what is the prediction market fire happening right now.

And may help them regain market share against Kalshi, which has pulled out to a bigger lead over the past month (66% market share last week).

Expect volumes to continue to grind up an to the right (barring any new legal or regulatory issues)…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are green again continuing the shutdown rally; BTC +2% at $118,800, ETH +2% at $4,380, XRP +1% at $2.99, SOL +4% at $225
• ZEC (+50%), DEXE (+30%) and SPX (+17%) led top movers
• Zcash rocketed ~63% to a three-year high, as traders (and Naval) pitch privacy coin as “insurance” hedge during Bitcoin strength
• MSTR stock jumped 5% yesterday after Strategy avoided a multi-billion AMT (tax) hit after new IRS/Treasury guidance, easing concerns over taxes on unrealized gains tied to its Bitcoin holdings
• Polymarket is poised to relaunch for U.S. users within days, as filings show self-certified contracts after acquiring a CFTC-licensed venue
• Circle introduced a new tokenized U.S. Treasury fund U.S.YC on Solana
• The UK government seeks to keep most of $7B in Bitcoin it just seized linked to massive Chinese fraud
• The White House withdrew Brian Quintenz for CFTC chair, reopening leadership questions at the derivatives regulator amid active crypto agenda
• New York is running a pilot to give low income residents $12,000 in U.S.DC to help alleviate poverty, with funding provided by Coinbase

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

• VisionSys AI is partnering with Marinade Finance to launch a SOL TreasuryCo, aiming to acquire $500M in SOL over the next 6 months (and stake it) with larger goals to accumulate up to $2B
• The U.S. government shutdown has halted the ETF approval process, diminishing hopes of any early October approvals (i.e. for SOL)

In Memes

• Memecoin leaders are very green; DOGE +7%, Shiba +3%, PEPE +4%, PENGU +4%, BONK +3%, TRUMP +3%, SPX +19%, and FARTCOIN +8%
• VIRU.S. +77% to $30M, LOOK +43% to $85M and aura +30% to $90M led onchain Solana movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

• Sui announced a new income-generating digital dollar token suiU.S.De powered by Ethena, with revenue used for SUI buybacks
• Pump.fun introduced “easy onramp,” enabling new funding methods powered by Apple Pay, Phantom, Robinhood and more
• Monad’s “intern” teased that Monad will launch in Q4
• Lighter launched its public mainnet (perps dex) yesterday, now open to the public after 8 months of private beta

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• ETH NFT leaders were mostly even, Hypurrs lead; Punks even at 47.3 ETH, Pudgy even at 10, BAYC -3% at 8.75 ETH
• Hypurr’s rebounded 30% to a 1,500 HYPE floor ($71,000)
• Punk Strategy jumped 50% to $140M and a new ATH, 65% of the way to its 20th Punk; BIRBStrategy +80% to $12M and PDGYSTR +60% to $11M led movers
• A NodeStrategy has teased its launch, using an auction format to use funds to acquire NodeMonkes in a similar style as the other NFT Strategies (not affiliated)
• Doodles landed on Froot Loops boxes, with 500 limited editions at $50 selling as NFTs on Base
• Oh Baby Games announced its first NFT venture, the “Oh Baby Pass,” launching next week