Key takeaways:
XRP rally is in a good position to rally toward $3.98–$4.32 this month following an RSI golden cross.
Profit-taking remains muted, suggesting stronger holder conviction ahead of October’s ETF decisions.
XRP ( XRP ) is back above the psychological $3 mark, reigniting speculation that it could be gearing up for another big move. A recurring technical signal on its multiday chart is strengthening that bullish case.
RSI golden cross signals 30%-40% XRP rise next
XRP’s 3-day relative strength index (RSI) has just flashed a golden cross, with the indicator closing above its 14-period moving average. This suggests that momentum is shifting back in favor of the bulls.
For instance, XRP’s price rose by over 75% a month after the RSI golden cross in June. Similarly, it jumped by more than 28% last April and an eye-popping 575% in November last year after similar crossover prints.
The latest crossover comes as XRP retests support at its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), a level that has consistently aligned with previous RSI golden cross rallies.
The confluence of the $3 breakout, 50-period EMA support, and RSI crossover raises XRP’s odds of rising toward the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at $3.39 in October, up 11% from the current levels.
The XRP/USD pair may rise further toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, located near $4.32, representing about a 40% increase, by October or November if it decisively closes above $3.39.
Related: XRP price: Why October will be the most bullish month of 2025
Another bullish setup, a descending triangle breakout, points to a $3.98 target — up 30% from current prices — as XRP climbs above the pattern’s upper trendline, further reinforcing the RSI golden cross signal.
XRP profit-taking becomes less severe
XRP’s latest rally above $3 has not triggered the kind of extreme profit-taking that has marked its past bull market tops, onchain data shows.
The percent supply in profit — the share of circulating XRP trading above its cost basis — has remained elevated and relatively stable since the November 2024 breakout, according to Glassnode data.
In earlier cycles, spikes toward 90% to100% profit levels often coincided with rapid sell-offs and sharp drawdowns. This time, however, XRP holders appear to be exercising more patience.
The steadiness suggests that long-term investors are less eager to cash out in the near term, indicating stronger conviction in the ongoing trend, particularly ahead of multiple XRP ETF decisions in October.
