Jobs report in limbo, but Q4 could still be stellar for crypto

A crucial catalyst for the crypto market was supposed to be Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data, but that’s now in limbo due to the government shutdown, which is currently in its fourth day.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the report to show the economy added 39,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

This labor market report will be critical for the crypto market, as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. A weaker jobs report would be bullish for cryptocurrencies, as it would increase the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting.

Several Fed officials—including Raphael Bostic, Jerome Powell, and Austan Goolsbee—have recently expressed caution about cutting rates too soon, citing persistent inflation. Therefore, disappointing job numbers would strengthen the case for easing.

Major Token Unlocks

The market was also watching for several significant token unlocks this week. According to data from DeFi Llama, unlocks totaled around $280 million.

• Zora, a popular token on the Base blockchain: $9.35 million worth of tokens, or 4.6% of its circulating supply.
• Sui: $174 million worth of tokens, equivalent to 1.5% of its float.
• Other notable unlocks included tokens from EigenLayer, Immutable X, Orderly, and Optimism.

Start of Q4 — Historically Bullish

Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s average return in Q4 since 2013 is 85%, with a median return of 52%. Ethereum, since 2016, has posted an average Q4 return of 23%.

Given the recent market correction, the seasonal trend could support a potential rebound.

Looking ahead, the fourth quarter brings several key events that could drive prices higher. These includ

• Potential altcoin ETF approvals
• Further Federal Reserve rate cuts
• The anticipated Ethereum Fusaka upgrade

Together, these catalysts set the stage for a potentially strong finish to the year in the crypto market.