Peter Brandt Predicts Either 125K BTC Or A 75 % Crash

Bitcoin dropped as it approached its all-time high. In a few hours, the market erased several billion dollars, revealing once again its extreme volatility. Despite this marked correction, several analysts maintain a bullish scenario, estimating that this pullback does not call into question the underlying trend.

Towards a Final Correction Before the Peak ?

While Bitcoin ETFs face major outflows , veteran financial markets trader Peter Brandt stated in a recent statement that the flagship crypto could reach a new all-time high in the coming days, but not without turbulence.

He envisions two distinct scenarios: “either a huge shakeout, which would be confirmed by an ATH in the coming week or a breach of the parabola, which has always historically led to a 75 % drop”.

Here is how he details the two possible trajectories for BTC :

• The bullish scenario : a strong correction (shakeout) quickly followed by a rebound towards a new ATH around $125,100 ;

• The bearish scenario : a break of the current parabolic structure, which could lead to a drop of the price towards $50,000 – $60,000, without however returning to the 80 % declines observed in previous cycles.

This analysis comes after a brutal correction on Friday, following Donald Trump’s announcement of new 100% tariffs on Chinese products . In a few hours, bitcoin went from $121,000 to $102,000, triggering nearly $19 billion in liquidations across the entire market.

For Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, this extreme volatility is a direct reminder of the dangers linked to leverage use. “This weekend reminded us how dangerous leverage can be, even beyond 1.5x”, he warned.

Despite the price recovery around $111,000, caution remains necessary. The combination of sudden geopolitical events and over-leveraged positions continues to weaken market stability.

A Macro-Economic Environment Favorable to Bitcoin ?

Beyond technical fluctuations and brutal corrections, some analysts believe that current macroeconomic fundamentals could support a Bitcoin recovery.

In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, interpreted the intervention of Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, as a strong signal. “Back up the trucks and buy everything on the market”, he wrote, reacting to the implicit announcement of the end of quantitative tightening.

This monetary pivot, synonymous with a gradual return to more accommodative policies, is historically favorable to risk assets like cryptos.

On the side of economic analysts, this view is shared. Pav Hundal, strategist at Swyftx, sees in the current environment, falling oil prices, moderate inflation (2.9 % in August), weakening of the US labor market, a particularly supportive context for Bitcoin.

“All this inevitably leads us to upcoming rate cuts. It’s a Goldilocks zone for Bitcoin”, he explains. For Lyn Alden, a renowned macroeconomist, the next quarter could prove quite favorable to the entire crypto market.

These elements reveal a potential transition toward a more sustained bullish cycle, fueled by monetary easing and the return of liquidity to the markets. However, while macroeconomic fundamentals argue for a recovery, caution remains necessary as long as geopolitical uncertainty and the structural volatility of the crypto market remain high, as evidenced by its recent return to the fear zone .