Altcoins lose steam and remain below their $1,6 trillion peak

• Altcoin market fails to surpass 2021 peak
• ETF flows concentrate on Bitcoin and halt rotation
• Restricted liquidity and macro scenario weigh on risk assets

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high near $126.000 in early October, but the altcoin market as measured by the index TOTAL2ES, has not yet managed to break through the $1,6 trillion ceiling reached in November 2021. Even after BTC's surge, altcoins continue to fail to confirm their bullish cycle, with the index trading at around $1,48 trillion, about $120 billion below the previous peak.

The absence of a new record in TOTAL2ES indicates that the "altcoin season" remains delayed. While Bitcoin surpassed its 2021 high by 84%, altcoins remain stuck at a structural resistance level, suggesting that institutional capital continues to prioritize the leading cryptocurrency via spot ETFs. These products, which have accumulated billions in net inflows, have absorbed much of the liquidity directed towards the sector.

Three drivers are shaping market behavior at this point in the cycle. The first is the net flow of Bitcoin ETFs into the United States, which serves as a key barometer of marginal demand. The second factor is linked to the macroeconomic scenario: trade tensions between the US and China—including the proposed 100% tariffs on imports—and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are affecting risk appetite. The third element is dollar liquidity stress, reflected in the increased use of the Fed's Permanent Deposit System, a sign that short-term funding remains tight.

This combination limits capital rotation into higher-beta assets like Solana, XRP, and other altcoins, preventing the sector's total capitalization from surpassing its previous peak. The technical trigger to confirm a new bullish phase would be a weekly close of TOTAL2ES above the $1,63 trillion to $1,7 trillion range—something that, so far, has not occurred.

Despite a partial recovery following the global deleveraging event, altcoins have yet to keep pace with Bitcoin. The market remains closely monitoring ETF flows, derivatives positions, and the evolution of global liquidity, which should determine whether there will be room for a marginal new high or prolonged consolidation before the expected rotation for the sector.