ADP Bridges Data Gaps, Guiding the Fed’s Rate Cut Decisions
- The Fed plans a 25-basis-point rate cut at its October meeting, relying on ADP data due to delayed official labor reports from the government shutdown. - ADP ended its Fed data-sharing agreement but will now publicly share weekly employment data, amid strong Q3 2025 financials and a Pequity acquisition. - Labor market uncertainty persists, with the Fed using alternative metrics like state claims and ADP data, raising chances of further cuts in December and early 2026. - ADP's market influence grows as it
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at its meeting on October 29-30, with traders assigning a 97.6% likelihood to this outcome, which would set the target range at 3.75%-4%, as reported by
The shutdown has also intensified attention on
The Fed’s dependence on ADP underscores the broader difficulties in assessing the labor market. Stephen Kates, an analyst at Bankrate, pointed out that the October CPI report, which came in softer than expected, gave the Fed “a boost in confidence,” though the central bank remains wary about the direction of employment, according to Yahoo. Bank of America analysts observed that the labor market is “at best stable, at worst showing mild weakness,” and the lack of official job reports has led the Fed to rely more on alternative data, such as state unemployment claims and ADP’s figures. This situation could impact the Fed’s December meeting, where traders now see over a 95% probability of another 25-basis-point reduction, as reported by
ADP’s recent strong performance—including a 26.32% operating margin and a market capitalization of $113.28 billion—makes it a key source of labor data in the current environment. Still, the Fed’s ability to make clear policy decisions is limited by the absence of comprehensive labor statistics, with Chair Jerome Powell stressing the importance of evaluating policy “meeting by meeting,” according to GuruFocus. As the December meeting nears, the interaction between ADP’s data and the Fed’s policy decisions is expected to influence market expectations for a potentially more aggressive rate-cutting cycle in early 2026.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
AERO’s Share Repurchases and Strategic Partnerships Drive Surge Amid Market Slump
- AERO surged 36% in October 2025 amid crypto market declines, driven by Aerodrome's buybacks and institutional backing. - Protocol revenue exceeding emissions and 560,000 token buybacks signaled financial sustainability, boosting investor confidence. - Animoca Brands' AERO acquisition and governance stake highlighted institutional trust in Aerodrome's Base ecosystem leadership. - AERO's 50% TVL dominance on Base and MWX's AI token launch reinforced its role as a DeFi innovation hub with deflationary mecha
Fed's Decision to Lower Rates Faces Opposition Due to Uncertain Data and Ongoing Inflation Worries
- Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to address slowing growth and elevated inflation, marking its second 2025 cut amid economic uncertainty. - Two officials dissented: Miran (50-basis-point cut) and Schmid (no cut), highlighting internal debates over inflation risks. - Government shutdown disrupted key data, forcing reliance on private metrics as markets priced in 96.7% chance of December cut. - Bitcoin surged past $116,000 while S&P/Nasdaq hit records, but Schmid warned rate easing risks undermining 2% inflation c
Bitcoin News Update: Financial Authorities Transform the Industry by Adopting Crypto Integration Amid Stablecoin Growth
- Global regulators intensify crypto banking oversight as stablecoins surge, with Japan's FSA pioneering policies allowing banks to hold and trade cryptocurrencies. - France opposes CBDCs, proposing 2% Bitcoin ownership and relaxed crypto lending rules, aligning with U.S. stablecoin-friendly frameworks like the GENIUS Act. - Stablecoin adoption expands rapidly, with EURAU's blockchain interoperability and Standard Chartered predicting $2T in tokenized assets by 2028. - Regulatory shifts reflect global tren
USDC Overtakes USDT as MiCA Regulations Transform the Stablecoin Market
- JPMorgan reports USDC outpaces USDT in onchain activity due to regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, with a 72% market cap surge to $74B this year. - MiCA compliance in Europe boosted USDC adoption, contrasting USDT's delistings, while integrations with Visa/Mastercard and CCTP expanded DeFi utility. - Circle's partnership with ClearBank enabled MiCA-compliant cross-border payments, driving stock gains from $92 to $146 and $33.45B market cap. - Analysts highlight USDC's regulatory edge as a mode
Trending news
MoreCrypto prices
More
