Bitcoin News Update: Lightning Network's True Value Grows Beyond What Public Data Shows

Once seen as a primary measure of adoption, Bitcoin’s Lightning Network is undergoing a transformation as private channels led by exchanges become more prevalent, raising questions about the accuracy of conventional indicators like public capacity. As leading exchanges, wallets, and merchants increasingly handle transactions through custodial and off-chain solutions, the network’s observable liquidity—tracked by open channels and collateral—has stagnated, even as practical usage rises. This evolution reveals a widening gap between on-chain statistics and the true economic flows within Bitcoin’s second-layer network, according to

.

Currently, public Lightning capacity is at 4,132 BTC (about $453 million), recovering from a low of 3,600 BTC in August but still trailing 2024 figures. The number of nodes and channels has also dropped, with 16,294 nodes and 41,118 channels as of October 2025. However, these numbers obscure a significant increase in off-chain transactions. Major exchanges such as

, OKX, Kraken, and Binance now process the majority of Lightning transactions, using the network for withdrawals and deposits without making their routes public. This centralization reduces the need for public channel collateral, shrinking visible capacity but improving efficiency, as highlighted in the CryptoSlate report.

This trend is further accelerated by the integration of stablecoins. Tether’s

has started utilizing Bitcoin’s Lightning Network through Taproot Assets, allowing dollar-based transactions without increasing public channel capacity. Lightning Labs, a major infrastructure provider, promotes this as a way to expand fiat payment corridors while keeping liquidity requirements low. At the same time, wallet features like splicing and BOLT12 upgrades let users adjust channel sizes and simplify recurring payments, reducing the need to open new channels, according to the CryptoSlate analysis.

Merchant participation is also influencing the network. Businesses such as Japan’s Mercari and South Africa’s Pick’n Pay have adopted Lightning for Bitcoin payments, with settlements converted to local currency for vendors. Breez and 1A1z estimate that over 650 million people now have access to Lightning-enabled payment apps, though most active users are still within the crypto community. CoinGate noted that Lightning’s share of Bitcoin merchant payments nearly doubled from 2023 to mid-2024, reaching 15%, a trend that has continued into 2025, according to the CryptoSlate report.

The impact on

metrics is significant. Public capacity, once a stand-in for network health, now lags behind actual usage. For instance, the average channel size has grown to around $10,763, and fee rates have increased by 3.2% daily, indicating more throughput per BTC. Yet these improvements are not captured in overall capacity statistics. Experts caution that relying on outdated metrics could lead to misunderstandings about the network’s growth. “Throughput is consolidating into fewer, more robust routes,” one industry specialist observed, noting that measured capacity might decrease even as real-world activity expands, as the CryptoSlate analysis points out.

Looking forward, different scenarios are possible. In a “consolidation base” scenario, public capacity could remain between 3,500 and 4,800 BTC, with exchanges handling 10–20% of Bitcoin withdrawals. If stablecoin corridors gain momentum, a “USDt lift” could push capacity to 4,500–6,500 BTC. On the other hand, regulatory challenges or fee instability could pull capacity below 3,000 BTC, limiting merchant adoption outside of crypto-focused sectors, the CryptoSlate report cautions.

Meanwhile, institutional approaches to Bitcoin continue to develop. Firms like ZOOZ Strategy Ltd. and Metaplanet have increased their Bitcoin reserves through buybacks and credit lines, with ZOOZ now holding 1,036 BTC worth about $115 million. These actions highlight Bitcoin’s expanding role as a corporate treasury asset, though they are separate from Lightning’s payment ecosystem, as detailed in a

and a .