Why Bitcoin’s Rare Red October Might Not Spell Doom

October was supposed to be a month of bullish momentum for Bitcoin. Instead, it marked the third time in history that the month ended in negative territory.

The drop reignited debate over whether the market is entering a pause or the early stages of a broader correction. Despite the decline, market analysts see reason for optimism, citing recent performance as only a temporary setback.

A Rare Break from ‘Uptober’ Tradition

Bitcoin’s performance last month defied the seasonal norms closely associated with “Uptober.” 

Instead of averaging returns close to 20% for the month, the cryptocurrency closed October some 5% lower with little signs of a rally nearby. This price drop ended a six-year streak of positive performance. 

The unexpected downturn has sparked a wave of uncertainty among traders, who are now debating whether Bitcoin’s October slip marks a brief pause or the beginning of a more significant correction.

QCP: Bitcoin fell from $110K to $107K in early October due to profit-taking by early holders, marking the first “red October” since 2018. Despite heavy selling pressure of over 400k BTC, Bitcoin held above $100K. This pause could signal either a calm before a new rally or the…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain)

The last two times Bitcoin ended October in the red were in 2014 and 2018, and both periods offered dramatically different outcomes.

“In 2014, this unexpected down month was followed by a 12.8% rally in November, but 2018 saw a further slide of 36% the month after. So it could still go either way,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto.

Yet, last month’s underwhelming performance contains some encouraging factors that suggest the rally is likely just on pause.

Macro Uncertainty Tests Market Confidence

According to Puckrin’s analysis, Bitcoin’s recent price weakness is a healthy correction within a larger bull phase. 

“For one thing, the market absorbed 405 BTC worth of selling pressure from legacy holders in October – yet the price still held above $100,000. In fact, it hasn’t dipped below $100k since May 2025. If that’s not a sign of resilience, I don’t know what is,” he explained.

That resilience is particularly exceptional in the face of larger macroeconomic uncertainties that have generally affected markets.

“There’s ongoing pressure on the macro side, with the US government shutdown still unresolved and therefore insufficient economic data for the Federal Reserve to base its next interest rate decision on,” Puckrin added.

In the meantime, the odds of a December rate hike have dropped sharply. For Puckrin, these factors will continue to weigh on sentiment, and he predicts a volatile month ahead for Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, Puckrin views the overall turbulence as fleeting.

Short-Term Noise, Strong Fundamentals

Once the current wave of selling pressure subsides, the broader fundamentals supporting Bitcoin will reassert themselves. 

Puckrin predicts that, as quantitative tightening comes to an end, a period of increased liquidity will follow as the Federal Reserve eases financial conditions to support growth. 

Meanwhile, as inflationary pressures persist in the United States and globally, traditional currencies continue to lose purchasing power. This trend tends to drive investors to seek alternative assets such as Bitcoin, which many view as a hedge against currency devaluation.

“The case for Bitcoin is intact – the selling is just short-term noise,” Puckrin concluded.