Bitcoin Updates Today: Bitcoin Faces Volatility Compression: November's Critical $100k Battle

As November 2025 progresses, Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal point, with its price movement narrowing into a period of low volatility that could soon lead to a significant upward or downward swing. Market participants are intently observing whether

(BTC) will break above $112,000 or fall beneath the key $100,000 mark—a level last reached in late June—according to a . The ongoing consolidation, characterized by some of the lowest weekly Bollinger Bandwidth readings in years, resembles previous setups that preceded major price shifts, as noted in a .

Bitcoin’s recent dip below $100,000 came after a 6% decline on November 4, deepening a 20% pullback from its October high near $124,500, according to Yahoo. In just one day, crypto liquidations surpassed $1.3 billion, with Bitcoin making up $445 million of those losses. This sharp selloff happened alongside a broader move away from risk, triggered by U.S. Supreme Court tariff hearings and fears of a looming 10% correction in equities. Additionally, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown—now in its 35th day—has added to the strain on risk assets, while the dollar index has climbed above 100 for the first time since August, as highlighted in a

.

Major institutional investors are adopting a more cautious stance.

, a leading crypto company, has lowered its year-end 2025 price forecast for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000, citing issues such as limited institutional uptake, forced liquidations, and large holders selling off, according to a . Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, attributed the revision to "whale distribution, investments outside of BTC, and corporate treasury hesitancy," though he remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, as reported in a . The company also pointed out that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced over $1 billion in outflows over five straight days, as investors shift capital toward AI infrastructure and gold, Coinotag noted.

Technical signals are contributing to the market’s uncertainty. Bollinger Bands have contracted to their narrowest range in more than a year, with the BBW indicator hovering near the 15 mark—a level that has historically preceded sharp price moves, according to Coinpedia. Market analyst Matthew Hyland observed that the monthly Bollinger Bands are now at "the most extreme point in Bitcoin’s history," indicating that significant volatility may be imminent, as mentioned in a

. Blockchain data also shows Bitcoin trading close to $101,000, buoyed by easing U.S.-China trade tensions but weighed down by declining institutional interest, according to an .

November is shaping up to be a crucial month. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 42.5% gain in November, Cointelegraph reported. Analysts highlight technical patterns, such as moving average crossovers and lunar cycles, as possible triggers for a reversal in the middle of the month, according to a

. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory developments—especially in Australia and South Korea—could keep volatility elevated, according to a . JPMorgan continues to project a $165,000 target for 2025, provided ETF inflows remain strong and the Federal Reserve eases policy, the Yahoo analysis added.

With Bitcoin at a decisive point, the next few weeks will reveal whether its three-year bull run can endure. A move above $112,000 could restore bullish sentiment, while a prolonged drop below $100,000 might indicate further declines. As Galaxy’s Thorn remarked, "the long-term outlook remains positive—but the timeline may be longer than anticipated."