Bitcoin News Update: Short-Term Holders Increase Holdings While Long-Term Holders Realize Gains—$100K Becomes Key Level

This week, Bitcoin’s value slipped under $100,000 as the

Premium index dropped to its lowest point in seven months, indicating reduced demand in the U.S. and outflows from ETFs. Despite this, blockchain data shows that short-term holders (STHs) are increasing their Bitcoin holdings, suggesting early accumulation is underway even as the broader market remains uneasy, according to a . The premium, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other major exchanges such as Binance, turned negative, highlighting stronger selling activity from U.S. traders. Historically, these periods have matched with temporary price declines, but traders often see them as precursors to market bottoms.

The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) dropped by 5.57% to $100,689.51 on November 4, marking its lowest 4 p.m. close since June 22, 2025, as stated in a . Over the last three days, the index fell 8.7%, its steepest three-day decline since October 11. Even with this pullback, Bitcoin is still up 7.79% for the year, though it remains 20.26% below its 52-week peak of $126,272.76.

Blockchain indicators present a mixed scenario. STHs, who generally keep Bitcoin for fewer than 155 days, have seen their net position change hit a yearly peak, pointing to renewed buying. In contrast, long-term holders (LTHs), who hold 73.6% of the total supply, continue to realize profits, with more than 363,000 BTC moving from

wallets to STHs over the last month, based on a . Analysts such as JA Maartunn describe this as a “mid-bull phase,” where LTHs are selling into strength while STHs absorb the supply. The interplay between these groups may determine if Bitcoin can maintain levels above $100,000 or if it will revisit the June low of $98,200.

According to Bitcoin Magazine’s review of on-chain data, the outlook is more positive. The realized price for STHs—an estimate of the average entry price for recent buyers—is now at $113,000, serving as a key support. If Bitcoin stays above this level, historical trends indicate the market could climb to $160,000–$200,000 by late 2025, driven by the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, per a

. The MVRV ratio, which compares the current price to the realized value, has historically marked periods of overvaluation and undervaluation. At 0.66, the current reading matches important support levels from previous cycles, hinting at more buying opportunities.

At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index has dropped into “Extreme Fear,” a technical signal that often marks short-term market bottoms. Exchange reserves are also near a seven-year low at 2.38 million BTC, indicating that immediate selling pressure is limited. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe believe that a sustained move above $112,000 would signal a return to bullish momentum.

The differing actions of STHs and LTHs highlight a broader market trend: while short-term traders are preparing for a possible rebound, long-term holders remain cautious. This ongoing push and pull illustrates Bitcoin’s evolution as an asset, with greater institutional involvement increasing both liquidity and volatility. For now, traders are closely monitoring the $100,000–$104,000 zone, where previous liquidity absorption could lay the groundwork for a stronger upward move.