BNY projects a $3.6 trillion stablecoin market, contingent upon regulatory clarity and institutional cooperation

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BNY projects a $3.6 trillion stablecoin market, contingent upon regulatory clarity and institutional cooperation

Bitget-RWA2025/11/12 21:56

By:Bitget-RWA

- BNY Mellon forecasts $3.6T stablecoin/tokenized cash market by 2030, driven by institutional adoption and regulatory progress. - EU MiCA and U.S. GENIUS Act (2025) mandate 100% reserve backing, fostering institutional confidence through clear compliance standards. - JPMorgan's JPMD stablecoin and USDsui's yield-focused model exemplify institutional blockchain integration for faster payments and liquidity. - Regulatory fragmentation and UK-style reserve caps could hinder growth, while permissioned chains

According to a report released on November 10, BNY Mellon anticipates that the combined market value of stablecoins and tokenized cash assets could soar to $3.6 trillion by 2030, fueled by greater institutional involvement and progress in regulation.

CoinDesk

. The report projects that stablecoins alone could reach $1.5 trillion, while tokenized deposits and money market funds (MMFs) would make up the remaining $2.1 trillion. The bank highlighted that blockchain will work alongside existing financial infrastructure, not replace it, leading to quicker settlements, lower counterparty risks, and more efficient collateral movement, as detailed by CoinDesk.

Regulatory clarity is seen as a key driver for this expansion. The report pointed to the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and the U.S. GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, as pivotal for enabling large-scale stablecoin issuance, according to CoinDesk. These regulations require payment stablecoins to be fully backed by reserves and set out clear compliance guidelines, which help build institutional trust, as CoinDesk reported.

BNY projects a $3.6 trillion stablecoin market, contingent upon regulatory clarity and institutional cooperation image 0

Still, there are obstacles. Should countries like the UK adopt the Bank of England’s strict reserve rules—limiting how much systemic stablecoins can be held—the $3.6 trillion goal could be at risk, according to

CryptoSlate

Institutional engagement is also crucial. BNY stated that for the market to grow beyond a specialized $400 billion to $800 billion range, major banks must issue tokenized deposits for collateral, repo deals, and intraday liquidity, as CryptoSlate mentioned. JPMorgan’s recent introduction of its dollar-pegged stablecoin, JPM Coin (JPMD), on Coinbase’s Base network is a case in point. This token allows for continuous, nearly instant institutional payments, with future plans to support more currencies and blockchains, according to a

StockTwits

article.

However, reaching the $3.6 trillion mark is not without risks. JPMorgan has offered a more reserved estimate, suggesting that without more defined use cases, stablecoin adoption could stall below $500 billion by 2028, as noted by CryptoSlate. Meanwhile, the

Sui

Foundation’s USDsui stablecoin, launched in November, is designed to generate yield by utilizing Bridge’s custodial platform, aligning with the GENIUS Act’s regulatory requirements, according to

InvestorEmpires

. Its integration with high-capacity networks such as Base and

Solana

highlights the importance of smooth interoperability between public blockchains and traditional banks, as InvestorEmpires reported.

The effects on

Bitcoin

and

Ethereum

are complex. If 30–50% of stablecoins remain on open public blockchains, liquidity for crypto derivatives and lending could grow to $450 billion–$750 billion, narrowing spreads and lessening volatility, as CryptoSlate observed. Yet, a significant portion of the $3.6 trillion could be held on permissioned chains, where stablecoins are restricted by KYC lists and cannot be used on decentralized exchanges or lending platforms, according to CryptoSlate. This could decrease the demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral, with tokenized Treasuries and MMFs becoming more prominent, as CryptoSlate noted.

In the end, realizing the stablecoin vision depends on aligning regulations, user experience, and technical infrastructure. As BNY’s Carolyn Weinberg remarked, this pivotal moment could reshape global capital markets—but only if blockchain and traditional finance advance together, as CoinDesk highlighted.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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