The recent movements in Bitcoin's price have reignited discussions about the strength of its two-year upward trend, as the digital asset lingers near significant support thresholds. After challenging resistance close to $106,500,
Bitcoin
(BTC) managed to hold above $100,000. Experts remain split on whether this points to a possible bounce back or signals the start of a more substantial decline. Shifting patterns in both institutional and retail interest, along with mixed technical signals, have made the market outlook increasingly complex.
Part of Bitcoin's recent rebound can be attributed to a slight uptick in investments into US-based spot ETFs. According to SoSoValue, there was a
net inflow of $1.15 million on Monday
, which followed a previous week that saw $1.22 billion withdrawn. Although modest, this reversal has been viewed optimistically by bullish investors, who see it as a sign of rising institutional trust. Still, the
momentum
remains delicate. On Thursday, ETFs experienced
$870 million in outflows
, marking the second-largest daily withdrawal since their inception, based on CoinDesk data. These opposing trends highlight the prevailing uncertainty in the market.
Glassnode's research points to early indications of stabilization near the $100,000 mark, with
spot trading volumes climbing to $14.1 billion on Monday
from $11.5 billion the week before. This uptick hints at renewed buying interest, though it stops short of confirming a lasting bullish reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 44
, reflecting a slowdown in upward momentum and increasing the likelihood of a retreat toward $100,000. At the same time,
the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing early signs of bullishness
.
Bitfinex market strategists
believe the current pullback is similar to previous mid-cycle consolidations
seen in 2024 and 2025, suggesting it may not mark the end of the ongoing bull market. They highlight that 72% of BTC in circulation remains profitable at $100,000, which historically bodes well for recovery. However, retail participation is still subdued. Even after a brief surge of $524 million in ETF inflows earlier this week,
outflows quickly returned, pushing Bitcoin down to a six-month low of $95,900
. "Risk assets typically attract strong buying after a shutdown, but this hasn't happened," commented Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments
as per his analysis
.
Optimism for the long-term remains, especially among institutional players.
Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's founder
, has once again forecast that Bitcoin will overtake gold in market capitalization by 2035. He points to increasing adoption by both central banks and corporations as major catalysts, with MicroStrategy itself holding over 214,000 BTC worth $20 billion. This confidence stands in contrast to immediate worries about ETF outflows and broader economic challenges, such as the Federal Reserve's "somewhat restrictive" policy stance
according to market analysis
.
Bitcoin is now at a pivotal point. A strong close above $106,500 could revive its upward momentum, while a prolonged dip below $100,000 may lead to further declines. Experts stress that a resurgence in institutional buying and greater macroeconomic certainty will be crucial in determining whether this period of consolidation results in a renewed bull run or a more extended downturn.