Bitcoin Updates Today: Fed Navigates Uncertainty as December Rate Cut Remains Unclear

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Bitcoin Updates Today: Fed Navigates Uncertainty as December Rate Cut Remains Unclear

Bitget-RWA2025/11/17 00:30

By:Bitget-RWA

- Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December dropped to 52% from 95% a month ago, reflecting deepening policymaker divisions. - Hawks like Collins emphasize inflation risks, while doves argue easing is needed to avoid restrictive policies amid weak labor data. - A government shutdown delayed critical economic reports, complicating decisions as structural shifts demand nuanced policy responses. - Bitcoin gains were capped by reduced cut odds, while broader markets remain sensitive to Fed signals on

The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act over whether to lower rates in December, as market expectations have dropped to about a 52% probability for a 25-basis-point cut—down significantly from 95% just a month earlier.

reflecting a roughly 52% probability

of a quarter-point decrease in the key rate. This sharp decline in confidence highlights growing disagreements among Fed officials, with persistent inflation and a resilient job market dampening hopes for imminent easing. The possibility of a rate cut, which would move the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, has been thrown into question by comments from influential figures, such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who

stressed that the bar for further action remains high

Collins, who votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), stated that unless there is "significant weakening in the labor market," further rate reductions could jeopardize progress on inflation, which

continues to exceed the Fed's 2% goal

. Her perspective is shared by an increasing number of "hawks" at the Fed, including St. Louis President Alberto Musalem and Chicago's Austan Goolsbee, who have

made it harder to justify cuts

as inflationary pressures persist. On the other hand, "doves" such as Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller still push for easing to prevent monetary policy from becoming too tight, pointing to slower job and wage growth.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly illustrates the central bank's cautious approach,

describing the risks to inflation and employment as "balanced"

and noting that it is "too soon" to make a call on December's decision. Although Daly does not vote this year, she remains an influential voice, emphasizing the importance of gathering more data before acting—a view echoed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who likened the current situation to "driving through fog." The extended U.S. government shutdown, which

postponed key economic data releases

, has added to the uncertainty, with some reports possibly lost for good.

Market movements have echoed the Fed's lack of clarity.

Bitcoin

(BTC) and other digital assets have seen their gains limited by the diminished chances of a rate cut, with

BTC

hovering around $103,000 as of November 13

. Broader financial markets remain highly responsive to the Fed's communications, as investors assess the central bank's ability to manage a delicate employment situation without reigniting inflation.

The upcoming December meeting, set for December 9-10, will challenge the Fed to balance these conflicting objectives. Although holding rates steady appears more probable, policymakers have not dismissed the possibility of a cut, with some

indicating that January may provide a clearer data picture

for making a decision. For now, the Fed's cautious stance signals a recognition that the current economic environment—

influenced by factors such as AI-driven productivity gains

and uneven wage growth—requires a more sophisticated approach to policy.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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