PENGU Token Value Soars: Analyzing November 2025’s Brief Rally and the Mindset of Investors

The token, associated with the Pudgy Penguins NFT project, saw a significant price jump in late 2025, fueled by a blend of technical signals, blockchain activity, and shifting investor attitudes. As the token approaches a pivotal point, it is crucial to analyze how short-term trends and psychological influences interact to determine if this rally is a strong entry or exit moment.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Divergence and Subtle Bullish Clues

Recent blockchain metrics paint a complicated technical picture. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for PENGU is at 38.705, indicating downward momentum and

, with no buy signals present. On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive, and since November 4, 2025, pointing to increased buying pressure. This gap between price movement and volume data suggests a possible stabilization period.

On-chain developments add further complexity. PENGU has broken out from a falling wedge pattern and is now testing a downward resistance line, with a crucial resistance at $0.0235.

, the token may aim for $0.026. Large holders are also influential: , which could help establish a price floor. Meanwhile, , while new inflows totaled $1.8 million, signaling cautious optimism among market participants.

Investor Sentiment: Accumulation, Short Interest, and Tactical Transfers

Investor actions highlight the token's volatility.

suggests strategic moves ahead of a possible breakout, matching the on-chain breakout signals. In contrast, , reflecting persistent bearish outlooks. Additionally, to exchanges during Q4 2025, a transfer that could be interpreted as either providing liquidity or a bearish indicator, depending on market perception.

The wider DeFi landscape also shapes sentiment.

is designed to enhance price discovery and liquidity. Although PENGU's direct involvement in CCA is not confirmed, this mechanism's focus on transparent pricing could indirectly benefit tokens like PENGU by improving market clarity and reducing price swings.

Risks and Warnings: NVT Metric and Support-Level Weakness

Despite positive drivers, risks remain.

for PENGU has not been determined, leaving investors without a clear benchmark to judge if the token is overpriced or undervalued. Furthermore, important support levels, such as $0.01454, are at risk of being breached, which could lead to a sharper decline. These factors underscore the importance of caution, especially given the token's mixed technical outlook.

Summary: Is This a Strong Entry or Exit Point?

PENGU's price rally in November 2025 offers a complex scenario for investors. While indicators like the MACD and OBV, along with whale buying, point to a possible bullish breakout, the bearish RSI, rising short interest, and unclear NVT ratio present notable risks. For those considering strong entries, it is vital to watch trading volume at the $0.0235 resistance and monitor whale activity. On the other hand, the increase in short positions and fragile support levels suggest that cautious exits or hedging may be prudent.

Ultimately, PENGU's future direction will depend on whether ongoing accumulation and DeFi-driven liquidity improvements can overcome the prevailing bearish technical signals.