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Bitcoin News Update: Uncertainty from Fed's Data and Divided Policies Keeps Rate Cut Decision Unresolved

Bitcoin News Update: Uncertainty from Fed's Data and Divided Policies Keeps Rate Cut Decision Unresolved

Bitget-RWA2025/11/20 15:28
By:Bitget-RWA

- Fed's December 2025 rate-cut odds drop to 44% as inflation risks and policy divisions delay easing, per CME data. - Persistent 3% year-on-year inflation and delayed economic reports create "data fog," forcing policymakers to rely on outdated metrics. - Stock and crypto markets react: S&P 500 faces pressure, Bitcoin dips below $90,000 amid prolonged tight monetary policy. - Fed's internal factions clash over inflation control vs. employment support, with 2026 likely starting point for slower easing cycle.

Uncertainty has increased around the Federal Reserve’s plans for a rate cut in December 2025, as market odds now suggest a 53% chance that rates will remain unchanged at this crucial meeting,

. This change highlights growing worries about persistent inflation and mixed signals from the Fed, which are sending shockwaves through both traditional finance and the cryptocurrency sector.

The rising likelihood of no rate cut is a sharp turnaround from earlier projections, which mostly anticipated a 25 basis point reduction. According to Polymarket data cited by financial commentator @KobeissiLetter, concerns about inflation—shown by annual price increases climbing back to 3%—have led traders to prefer keeping rates steady rather than easing policy.

, who stressed the importance of moving cautiously toward a neutral policy rate and pointed out that the current approach is still “somewhat restrictive.”

Adding to the confusion, the government shutdown has delayed key economic reports, leaving Fed officials in a “data fog.”

, and the November report will only be available after the December meeting, depriving policymakers of vital information. Consequently, traders now see just a 44% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, , according to the CME FedWatch tool. The absence of new data has also intensified internal disagreements, —doves, hawks, and moderates—debating how to balance inflation control with supporting employment.

The consequences for financial markets are significant. In the stock market, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown mixed results, with growth shares under pressure as hopes for rate cuts fade. Likewise,

(BTC) has slipped below $90,000, testing important support as investors adjust to the Fed’s ongoing restrictive stance. could keep trading between $60,000 and $80,000 through the end of the year, as lower liquidity and reduced risk appetite persist. (ETH) is also feeling the strain, as higher borrowing costs in traditional markets may drive capital toward DeFi platforms that offer yields, though ETH faces downside risks near the $3,000 level.

Cryptocurrency markets are also responding to broader economic developments. The sharp drop in expectations for a December rate cut has brought attention to BTC/USD short positions,

and transaction activity hinting at possible institutional withdrawals. For ETH, strategies like protective puts are becoming more popular as investors seek to hedge against increased volatility. Meanwhile, stablecoin reserves have reached a record $72.2 billion, indicating substantial liquidity waiting on the sidelines for a policy shift.

Looking forward, the September nonfarm payrolls report—scheduled for November 20—will be a key data release. Although its late arrival limits its immediate influence on policy, it could still sway market sentiment ahead of the Fed’s December meeting.

that the FOMC minutes, also expected this week, might reveal whether “hidden hawks” within the Fed will steer the upcoming vote.

As the Fed navigates a challenging economic environment, investors remain cautious. With inflation still above the 2% target and policy disagreements unresolved,

of a new easing cycle—though it may unfold more slowly than previously thought. For now, both stock and crypto traders are preparing for a December meeting that could redefine risk appetite and asset relationships in the coming months.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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