Bitcoin Updates: Bitcoin Climbs Even as ETF Outflows Hit Record Highs and Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts Fade

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Bitcoin Updates: Bitcoin Climbs Even as ETF Outflows Hit Record Highs and Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts Fade

Bitget-RWA2025/11/22 09:28

By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin rebounds as markets price a 46% chance of a December Fed rate cut, down from 93.7% in October. - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $523M in single-day outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT leading $2.1B in redemptions. - Technical indicators show a fourth "death cross" and declining liquidity amid unresolved macro risks. - Traders add $5.7M in short positions, reflecting broader caution as crypto faces regulatory and volatility challenges.

Bitcoin Recovers as Odds of December Fed Rate Cut Increase

Bitcoin (BTC) has started to bounce back as traders adjust their outlook for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in December, even as spot

Bitcoin

exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to see withdrawals. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s

iShares Bitcoin Trust

(IBIT) at the forefront, experienced $523 million in outflows in a single session—the highest since their debut in January 2024—pushing November’s total withdrawals to

an unprecedented $2.96 billion

. This marks their weakest monthly performance so far, with

BlackRock

alone responsible for $2.1 billion in redemptions.

Bitcoin Updates: Bitcoin Climbs Even as ETF Outflows Hit Record Highs and Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts Fade image 0

These redemptions run counter to historical patterns, as

November usually sees an average price surge of 41.22%

. Yet, shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have weighed on sentiment. The market now estimates

a 46% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction

at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, a sharp drop from 93.7% just a month earlier. This adjustment follows the scrapping of the October employment report and

a postponed release of November figures

, making it harder for the Fed to gauge the state of the labor market.

Technical signals have also sparked caution.

Bitcoin has just formed its fourth "death cross"

, a bearish indicator where short-term price action dips below long-term trends. Although this pattern has sometimes signaled market bottoms in the past, it now appears alongside declining liquidity and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. "

This signal is emerging just as liquidity begins to recover

," commented Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang.

At the same time, traders are bracing for more losses.

Savvy traders on Hyperliquid have opened $5.7 million in new short positions

over the past day, bringing total short bets to $275 million. This reflects a broader sense of caution in the market, as

two leading crypto market makers are reportedly facing financial shortfalls

, according to Bitmine Immersion chairman Tom Lee.

The ETF withdrawals underscore deeper issues in the crypto sector, such as regulatory ambiguity and security threats

as highlighted in an industry analysis

. While institutional interest is on the rise, it is still limited by inconsistent regulations worldwide and ongoing worries about volatility. "

The lack of standardized regulation is a barrier to innovation

," the report observed.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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