Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's Battle Between Bulls and Bears: Large Holders Increase Holdings Amid Potential 60% Decline

Bitcoin Faces 60% Bear Market Probability, But $200,000 Target Lingers

The outlook for Bitcoin has become more unpredictable, as investment advisor Andy Edstrom—a well-known figure in the crypto industry—has estimated a 60% chance that the current bull run is over. In a comprehensive breakdown shared on X, Edstrom presented a probability-based model indicating that

could find a bottom around $60,000 if a bear market unfolds, but there remains a 40% likelihood of the price reaching $200,000. Despite a bearish tilt, Edstrom pointed out that his risk-to-reward assessment still favors holding Bitcoin, especially in light of that run counter to typical bear market indicators.

As of mid-November, the digital currency was trading at $86,109, reflecting a 10.65% drop over the previous week. Edstrom’s bearish scenario is based on historical precedents, where past bear markets were sparked by factors like exchange breaches, geopolitical unrest, and excessive leverage. On the other hand, his more optimistic scenario—though less probable—depends on positive developments such as government acquisitions of Bitcoin or regulatory tailwinds. Factoring in these probabilities, the expected value points to a $116,000 target, which would be a 38% increase from current prices

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Whale activity has become a significant factor in market interpretation. Glassnode data showed that by mid-November, the number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC had climbed to 1,436, outpacing the accumulation rates seen during the bull runs of 2013 and 2016.

this as a sign of "extraordinary demand from major holders," suggesting that the lack of distribution phases—usually a precursor to bear markets—could indicate a possible blow-off top rather than a downturn. This creates a scenario where price trends and on-chain data are sending mixed messages.

Market turbulence has also led to the creation of new financial instruments. Leverage Shares revealed plans to introduce 3x long and short leveraged Bitcoin and

ETFs on the SIX Exchange, giving European investors a way to amplify their exposure to crypto price movements. This comes as Bitcoin and Ethereum have both fallen 21% since the start of the year, associated with leveraged products in such a volatile environment. At the same time, a "Market-Crash Support Package," featuring 100x leverage and a full deposit bonus, aiming to help traders benefit from rapid price changes.

Edstrom’s probability-driven perspective highlights the unpredictable nature of crypto assets. “There are no guarantees in financial markets,” he remarked, recommending that investors size their positions according to their risk appetite. His long-term outlook envisions Bitcoin reaching a total market value of $8 trillion by 2029, which would mean $400,000 per coin. Still, he warned that leveraged trades are particularly exposed to sharp corrections, especially as key moving averages converge near the $100,000 mark—a level that could prove pivotal for traders

.

The opposing signals from technical charts and whale activity underscore the challenges of interpreting the current market. While Edstrom’s bearish scenario is more likely, van Lagen’s view points to large investors preparing for a possible surge. This split has left many market watchers on the sidelines, closely watching whether Bitcoin can remain above $80,000—a crucial support threshold

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