Bitcoin News Update: AI Predicts Bitcoin May Not Reach $100k, Experts Watch for Recovery After Fed Decision
- AI model predicts <50% chance for Bitcoin to hit $100k by Dec 31 amid whale sell-offs and Fed policy shifts. - Market volatility spikes as BTC dips below $85k, with $1.93B liquidations and bearish consolidation expected until mid-2026. - Arthur Hayes forecasts $80k support post-Dec 1 QT end, citing improved liquidity and U.S. bank lending growth. - Institutional buying contrasts with retail outflows, while DeepSnitch AI gains traction as high-risk alternative. - Fed's 79% rate cut chance and macroeconomi
AI Model Predicts Less Than 50% Odds for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 by Year-End
The likelihood of
Bearish sentiment has taken hold as Bitcoin slipped beneath major support levels, including $85,000, raising concerns about a possible further drop toward the $70,000–$75,000 range. A significant liquidation event—$1.93 billion in positions erased in just 24 hours—has added to the market’s instability.
Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of BitMEX and a well-known figure in the crypto space, has become a prominent commentator during this period of uncertainty. Hayes believes Bitcoin has likely found a bottom at $80,000, pointing to improving liquidity as the Fed is set to conclude quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. He expects one last dip into the low $80,000s but maintains that this level will act as a floor, supported by increased U.S. bank lending and the possibility of a shift toward looser monetary policy
Nonetheless, optimism is dampened by differences between institutional and retail investors. ETF data reveals $2.8 billion in outflows led by smaller investors, while institutions remain confident, continuing to acquire Bitcoin and
The direction of Fed policy remains uncertain. CME Group’s FedWatch tool now indicates a 79% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, a sharp increase from 42% the previous week. However, economist Mohamed El-Erian has criticized the Fed’s "remarkable" volatility,
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $86,507, marking an 8.35% decline over the past week. While Hayes and others believe a surge to $200,000–$250,000 is possible if liquidity improves, the AI model’s pessimistic forecast highlights the obstacles ahead. With ongoing geopolitical issues, the rise of AI-powered trading tools, and uncertain Fed policy, investors must navigate a complex landscape as 2025 approaches.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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